PERSPEKTIVEN To Go – der Börsenpodcast · Deutsche Bank

Edelmetalle: Was kommt nach dem Preisanstieg?

·15 min·1 clip

Precious metals have skyrocketed recently, but what happens next after the Middle East war drove prices even higher?

The episode opens by noting the sharp price increases in precious metals, partly driven by the Middle East conflict. Host Jessica Schwarzer asks Dr. Ulrich Stephan about Europe's resilience compared to energy shocks. Stephan explains Europe's raw material import dependency, contrasting with some energy diversification. They revisit gold's recent pressure from inflation and interest rate expectations. Silver is highlighted as more cyclical than gold due to heavy industrial use in electronics and solar panels, having seen an extreme rally last year and high volatility this year. US interest rate policies and trade uncertainties with major producers Mexico and China are cited as reasons. Silver's classification as a critical mineral and rumors of Chinese export bans add to market tension. Copper is discussed as a versatile industrial metal and conjuncture indicator, with prices correcting after strong rises but remaining volatile. Aluminum's unique supply chain vulnerability is detailed, as bauxite shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf smelters like Bahrain face disruption risks. Platinum group metals are examined, with palladium heavily used in automotive catalysts and platinum more in hydrogen applications. A predicted sustainable market deficit for platinum by 2026 is mentioned. Investment methods are explored, including ETCs for direct exposure, with warnings about roll gains/losses due to futures contract structures. Mining stocks are presented as an alternative, though tied to equity market factors. Political influences like strikes, working conditions, and national strategic reserves (e.g., by USA and South Korea) are noted as price drivers. Long-term trends like the shift to electric cars potentially reducing platinum demand for catalysts but increasing copper use are considered. The episode concludes by emphasizing the complexity of raw material investing, requiring attention to supply chains, politics, and diversification.

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