Meloni assolve Trump e condanna i giudici

·32 min·2 clips

Andrea Scanzi: 'In no civilized democracy does a head of government answer a direct question about a war after ten days by saying I cannot comment because I lack the tools — if you lack the tools to understand geopolitics, you have the wrong job.'

1. Otto e mezzo (La7) convenes on day ten of the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran, addressing both the war's diplomatic state and Italy's domestic referendum crisis. 2. Host Lilli Gruber is joined by Lucio Caracciolo (editor of Limes geopolitics review), journalist Andrea Scanzi, and Mariolina Sattanino; jurist Luca Iosi also appears for the referendum discussion. 3. The episode argues that Western coverage systematically misunderstands Iran's internal power structure and that Italy's Prime Minister Meloni is politically paralysed between her Trump alliance and the European consensus. 4. Lucio Caracciolo opens by challenging the 'theocracy' framing: the real rulers of Iran are the Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards), who own most of the Iranian economy and are the ultimate political decision-makers, not the clerics. 5. The young Khamenei, chosen by the Pasdaran as a successor, is characterized by Caracciolo as intellectually modest but worth billions through London real-estate businesses active for 30 years — a 'Trump-like affinity of trade' that might paradoxically facilitate eventual negotiation. 6. Turkey intercepted an Iranian missile in NATO airspace for the second time that day; Caracciolo assesses Turkey not as a war risk but as a potential future negotiating intermediary, and notes Israel considers Turkey a greater long-term threat than Iran. 7. Oil closed at just under 100 dollars per barrel (having hit 120 earlier) after the G7 released 400 million barrels of reserve — characterized as a gesture that buys days or weeks, not months. 8. Putin offered to resume energy sales to Europe; Caracciolo notes European relationships with Russia have become more pragmatic since the U.S. attempted to strike Putin's location some weeks earlier. 9. Italy's gas and energy prices have tripled; the ECB warned it may be forced to raise interest rates if the war continues; Economy Minister Giorgetti told the Eurogroup that Italy's manufacturing competitiveness and economic security are at risk. 10. Sattanino notes Italy survived the 2022 energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war by rapidly sourcing gas from Algeria rather than Russia, suggesting structural resilience — but the Strait of Hormuz blockage, where 20% of global oil and gas passes, is the new systemic risk. 11. Trump reiterated to Corriere della Sera that Meloni is 'a great friend who always helps me and is an excellent leader'; Italy was not mentioned once in Trump's 35-minute press conference with Merz. 12. Meloni, asked directly about the Iran war after ten days, responded she could not comment because she did not have the instruments to judge; Scanzi says this statement, if true, means she has the wrong job. 13. Scanzi diagnoses Meloni's posture as 'Andreottian without Andreotti's cunning' — the grey establishment position of surviving by saying as little as possible — and specifically as Dantesque 'ignavia,' living without infamy or praise. 14. Caracciolo identifies two political calculations behind Meloni's silence: avoiding an unpopular war topic until the referendum, and maintaining the image of a 'bridge' between the EU and the U.S. — a posture Caracciolo says cannot last. 15. The referendum on the constitutional separation of judicial and prosecutorial careers, scheduled for March 22–23, dominates the episode's second half; seven articles of the Italian constitution would be changed if it passes. 16. Giussi Bartolozzi, head of cabinet to Justice Minister Nordio, intervened in the referendum campaign saying 'vote yes and we will remove the magistracy from the middle — they are execution platoons,' then claimed the quote was decontextualized. 17. Bartolozzi also promised the referendum would stop Italy's brain drain and bring young people back from abroad — a logical connection Scanzi ridicules as symptomatic of the governing coalition's broader incompetence. 18. Caracciolo argues the referendum has stopped being about the merits of judicial career separation and has become 'a political referendum on the Meloni government,' which means Meloni risks losing it and faces pressure on multiple fronts: the war, the referendum, Defence Minister Crosetto's embarrassments, and the Biennale controversy over admitting Russian and Belarusian artists. 19. Luca Iosi, who supports the reform from a centre-left position, argues the fundamental error was Meloni pushing a constitutional reform without seeking opposition agreement — comparing it to Renzi's failed 2016 referendum — while acknowledging concern that the reform's application would be controlled by the Meloni government. 20. This episode suits Italian-speaking political-news audiences interested in Italy's domestic politics under Meloni, the Iran war's European economic consequences, and the Italian judicial reform referendum.

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