Only Human – News, Analysis, and Insights from the World of Human Performance · Dr. Tony Kern

How to Survive and Thrive in a World of Relentless Uncertainty

April 1, 2025·27 min·1 clip

A Southwest crew went from 'attaboy' to 'oh shit' in less than 30 days.

1. Only Human: News, Analysis, and Insights from the World of Human Performance focuses on surviving 'relentless uncertainty' in everyday decisions. 2. Tony is the speaker and host, and he uses aviation, philosophy, and LinkedIn anecdotes to explain why uncertainty matters. 3. The episode asks what to do when 'the inherent speed of information is not the speed of time' and certainty starts to fail. 4. Tony says people crave certainty because it acts like an 'emotional pacifier and security,' but surprises make work and life suffer. 5. He uses the example of being 'bombarded' by X, TV, video streams, radio, texts, friends, and colleagues to show information overload. 6. He explains that more information creates 'multiple layers of complexity' because some sources seem reliable, some are uncertain, and some come from 'a meme or something.' 7. A fishing-knot example shows how one simple task can become complicated when a site lists '20 different fishing knots' and different line types. 8. Tony says the new details created enough doubt that he joked he 'don't even want to go fishing anymore.' 9. He shifts to aviation with Captain Renee O'Shaughnessy and a Southwest Airlines go-around that avoided a crash when another aircraft crossed a runway. 10. He contrasts that with a later Southwest event where a crew tried to take off on a taxiway and had to be stopped by the tower. 11. The phrase 'from attaboy to oh shit in less than 30 days' captures how fast confidence can collapse in high-risk settings. 12. Tony says crews in those situations need crew resource management, speaking up, and the willingness to stop when 'the relative karma of the situation' feels wrong. 13. He connects uncertainty to compliance by saying he is 'certain that compliance works' and that fudging black-and-white rules adds stress. 14. Dietrich Dörner's quote appears again: 'The ability to admit mistakes is a sign of wisdom.' 15. Tony says many people would rather be wrong 'for life' than admit they were wrong, and he links that to pride, ego, and echo chambers. 16. He defines assumptions as 'snap judgments or beliefs that form without evidence' and says in high-risk work they 'kill people.' 17. The four-part guide begins with accepting that 'the world's chaotic' and that fighting uncertainty is 'like wrestling with the wind.' 18. The second step is adaptability, which he ties to intentions instead of rigid timelines and to his definition of resolve: expect challenges, deal with them, learn from them, and come out stronger. 19. The tone is direct, reflective, and lecture-like, with repeated self-corrections, personal examples, and quoted lines from LinkedIn, Viktor Frankl, and the serenity prayer. 20. People interested in aviation safety, decision-making, and human performance will get the most from it, while listeners wanting a light entertainment episode may skip it.

As heard by us

A clear reflection on uncertainty, compliance, and staying engaged when something feels off.

This episode treats uncertainty as something to manage rather than fear. It argues that when a situation feels off, the better move is to pause, think, and give the task full attention, drawing on ideas from aviation, compliance, and the speaker's experience flying airplanes and…

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Why you'd press play

When the world feels relentlessly uncertain, this helps you stop pretending it is not.

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