On The Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast

February 1st is the TARIFF-ying day for Canada, Mexico and China

·44 min·4 clips

As the podcast records, Washington pushes tariffs on Canada from February 1st to March 1st, then the White House reverses it.

The episode begins with host Dave Trafford explaining the recording coincided with real-time confusion from Washington over whether tariffs on Canada would hit February 1st or be delayed to March 1st, setting a tone of political uncertainty. Trafford notes the podcast is now in daily mode for the Ontario election writ period, airing weekdays on Newstalk 1010 and via the iHeart app. The panel is introduced: regular pollster John Wright, comms strategist Anne-Marie Akins from the Now and Next podcast, and first-time guest Anna Bailao, former Deputy Mayor of Toronto. The conversation immediately assesses the first week of the provincial campaign. John Wright provides letter grades: Doug Ford's Conservative campaign gets an A for smooth visuals and messaging, focusing on workers and unions in locations like Windsor and St. Catharines, and leveraging the tariff issue. NDP leader Marit Stiles receives a B for a consistent 'fighting for us' message. Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie earns a D; her campaign is criticized as disheveled, highlighted by a policy announcement for $4.1 billion in platform edge doors for Toronto subways that opened her to attacks on spending priorities. Anna Bailao adds that the Liberals' message is mixed and unclear, while Ford is successfully appealing to traditional non-Conservative voters like unions. Anne-Marie Akins argues Ford is capitalizing on public distraction and fear around U.S. politics and Trump. The panel discusses the Liberals' need to reframe their campaign, with John Wright suggesting they focus solely on urban issues to match their limited ground game. Concerns are raised about whether focusing on Toronto spending alienates other regions. The conversation shifts to campaign dynamics: Wright analogizes the campaigns as two planes flying smoothly (Conservatives, NDP) and one with a shot-off tail (Liberals). He speculates the race may become a two-party contest between Conservatives and NDP if the Liberals don't recover. The panel debates whether surprises like an announcement on the delayed Eglinton Crosstown LRT opening could shift the campaign, though Akins doubts it will happen. They analyze how opposition parties could attack Ford's record on efficiency and unfulfilled promises but haven't capitalized. Voter engagement is discussed; Wright explains pollsters will look for momentum, soft voter support, and issue salience in coming weeks. The group considers whether voter fatigue from COVID and ongoing tariff anxiety will affect turnout and engagement. Akins posits Ford is using fear of Trump effectively as a motivator. The episode concludes with Trafford thanking the guests, promoting the daily schedule and listener feedback via his website, and signing off.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from On The Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast