ANTONIO ALONSO: ¿Paz o tregua trampa? Todo lo que esconde el plan de Irán y EEUU

·18 min·1 clip

Antonio Alonso explains why the recent Iran-US ceasefire is likely just a deceptive pause, not a path to peace.

The episode begins with host José asking analyst Antonio Alonso if the recent escalation between Iran and the US represents a true turning point or just a pause. Alonso is pessimistic, stating the sides are playing with emotions and buying time. He notes they can't even agree on whether the ceasefire plan has 10 or 15 points, and the content differs between the US and Iranian versions. Key issues like Lebanon and Hezbollah remain unresolved. Alonso highlights this isn't the first negotiation; talks have occurred alongside assassinations, like that of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in May 2024 and later Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. He argues neither side truly wants a diplomatic solution due to mutual distrust. The conversation shifts to domestic consequences, applying Andrew Mack's 1970s theory "Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars." Alonso explains that attacked nations like Iran face no accountability for extreme measures, while democratic leaders in the US and Israel will be held responsible for their methods and efficacy. He identifies Donald Trump as facing the greatest political cost, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu, with European NATO allies also at electoral risk. A specific potential development is discussed: Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni might support South Africa's legal case accusing Israel of genocide, which would signal a shift from Trump-aligned foreign policy. The role of religious leadership is examined, recalling Pope Francis's 2013 prayer vigil that may have deterred US intervention in Syria and noting Pope Leo's current call for prayer. Alonso emphasizes the Vatican's unique global intelligence network, which reports religious tolerance in Iran, contradicting common perceptions. The episode ends with Alonso reiterating that leaders like the Pope advocate for peace as a universal common good, not national aggrandizement.

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