Need to Know Investment Podcast · Coutts

Need to Know - 21 February, Trump one month on

·36 min·2 clips

A $500 billion biopharmaceutical sector depends heavily on publicly funded research, and that support is being disrupted.

1. Need to Know Investment Podcast returns to Trump’s first month after the 20 January inauguration and the market implications of his agenda. 2. Sarah Muir hosts alongside David Broomfield, who comments as the podcast’s investment expert from Coutts. 3. The episode asks whether tariffs, deregulation, and geopolitics will change the US economy or mainly create policy turbulence. 4. Sarah opens with a chart showing China’s 98% share of global battery anode manufacturing capacity. 5. David adds that China also accounts for 66% of global EV production and 85% of battery sales. 6. The pair then contrast that manufacturing picture with Trump’s focus on steel and aluminium tariffs. 7. David says the more important trade story is supply-chain rerouting through countries such as Vietnam. 8. He notes Vietnam has moved from the fifth-largest US trading partner to the third-largest. 9. The conversation also covers friendshoring as diversification after Covid exposed bottlenecks in concentrated supply chains. 10. David explains the gravity model of trade and why distance, logistics, and product type still matter. 11. A major point is that tariff effects can compound when components cross borders repeatedly during production. 12. David gives the North American auto industry as the clearest example, saying a typical US vehicle can cross the Mexican-US border about eight times. 13. He says that pattern can create an effective tariff rate of around 150% in some cases. 14. On the first Trump administration, David says steel and aluminium tariffs did not create a major CPI spike because exchange-rate moves offset them. 15. He also says lumber tariffs raised US home-building costs by about $9,000 to $20,000. 16. The discussion then shifts to deregulation, where David says energy and financial services were the two main sectors singled out. 17. He argues that US energy independence makes the energy rhetoric odd, while financial-services deregulation could erode market stability if oversight weakens. 18. A detailed example is the freezing of enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which David says may have limited practical effect because UK and European rules still apply. 19. The tone is analytical and back-and-forth, with Sarah pressing for examples and David answering in a measured, chart-led style. 20. Investors interested in tariffs, supply chains, regulation, and US policy risk will get the most from it, while listeners wanting commentary without economics may skip it.

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