57. Sequencing Risk: Why The Expected Value Is Not What You Should Expect | Cockroach Strategy (Part 2)

·20 min·1 clip

Jason concludes that sequence risk alone can mean a $36,500 or a $134,000 annual retirement income from the same savings.

The hosts of the Mutiny Investing Podcast delve into 'sequencing risk'—the idea that the order of investment returns matters more than the average return. Using examples from Russian roulette to historical Dow Jones data and retirement scenarios, they explain how this risk can drastically alter financial outcomes and why traditional expected value thinking is insufficient for long-term investing.

As heard by us

A clear look at sequencing risk and how the same returns can lead to very different retirement outcomes.

Part two of the Cockroach Series stays on sequencing risk, retirement planning, ergodicity, and how the order of returns can change an ending.

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Why you'd press play

You care more about retirement drawdowns than tidy average-return stories.

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