Outlook for Gold prices and interest rates with Bas Kooijman (16.2.26)

February 16, 2026·16 min·1 clip

Bas Kooijman explains why gold prices spiked to $5,500 an ounce and then corrected sharply.

The episode is a business commentary segment from Pulse 95's Morning Majlis, featuring Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital, as a regular market commentator. The conversation covers four main topics: US Federal Reserve interest rate policy, gold prices, silver supply, and briefly OPEC+ and geopolitical risk. On interest rates, Kooijman and the host discuss US inflation data that came in below expectations ahead of the weekend. Markets are pricing a Fed rate cut in June, though Kooijman notes that previous years saw dramatic downgrades in expected cuts. The host speculates Powell may deliver a final large cut before departing, but Kooijman notes the new Fed chair Trump is appointing is not expected to pursue aggressive reductions. Kooijman emphasizes the Fed historically moves conservatively, preferring to wait for consistent data rather than respond to political pressure. On gold, Kooijman says prices followed a predicted path toward $5,000 per ounce but overshot to $5,500 before a corrective pullback. He explains that markets commonly correct by 50% of a rapid gain, so the dip to $4,400 was within normal range. As of the morning of recording, gold is trading near $4,985, which Kooijman sees as a critical stabilization level. He notes that a sustained hold above $5,000 would set up the next upward move, and he does not recommend waiting to buy given overall support from central bank buying. On who is driving the gold market, Kooijman distinguishes between central banks — which buy long-term in large volumes and create price floors — and speculative actors like hedge funds, family offices, and retail clusters. He cites an April 2025 investigation into a gold rush that was traced to a large coordinated group of Asian retail traders buying to hold. On silver, Kooijman explains the gold-to-silver ratio, which historically was around 40:1 but stretched to 100:1 and is now compressing back toward 60:1. He highlights silver's growing industrial role in solar panels, EV batteries, and semiconductor/chip manufacturing, noting that every EV uses at least one ounce of silver. He says supply cannot keep pace with industrial demand, evidenced by Chinese panda silver coins selling from 2023 reserves because later years are sold out. Kooijman frames gold more broadly as a geopolitical stress indicator: when gold is stable, global tensions are calm; when it spikes, watch for conflict or instability. He closes by noting that higher lows in the gold price signal that the recent correction phase may be ending.

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