260309 - Oljepriset rusar med breda effekter på marknader
·9 min
The episode begins by noting Monday's significant market movements, with oil prices up over $20 since Friday to around $115 per barrel, driven by attacks on Iran. It explains that markets are preparing for an extended conflict, affecting oil access as the Hormuz Strait remains closed. News from the weekend includes Israel attacking fuel depots in Tehran and Iran's expert assembly selecting Moitaba, Ali Choumenei's son, as the new top leader, which may disappoint U.S. hopes for regime collapse. The segment describes internal splits in Iran over tactics, with the president apologizing for escalation, but attacks continuing. Saudi Arabia shot down drones heading to oil fields, and Kuwait and the UAE reduced production due to lagoon shortages. To address oil shortages, the U.S. is considering pausing sanctions on Russian oil at sea and gave India a 30-day delay on import bans. Economic data is noted as less influential currently, but Chinese inflation for February came in higher than expected, with KPI at 1.3%, the highest since 2023. The episode reviews last week's U.S. data, including strong ISM purchase indices but a 90% drop in the supply index and unemployment rising to 4.4%. Swedish inflation was lower than expected, at 1.7% for KPI, influenced by falling energy prices. The focus shifts to central banks, which face a 'nightmare' as rising energy prices threaten to spread inflation, with the ECB pricing in a rate increase and interest rates rising globally. Stock markets show red figures, with Europe more affected due to energy dependency: Eurostox 600 down 5.5%, S&P 500 down 2%, and Asian markets like Nikkei down 6%. Currency movements include a stronger dollar and Norwegian crown weakening, while gold fails to act as a safe haven. The episode concludes by previewing upcoming data, including U.S. inflation on Wednesday and Swedish indicators like BNP and household consumption, noting that data plays a smaller role amid geopolitical turmoil.
