Morgonrapporten · Handelsbanken EconomicResearch

251128 - Svensk BNP i fokus under fredagen

·11 min·1 clip

The KI-barometer reveals a surprising drop in construction sector employment plans, signaling potential economic shifts.

The episode begins with host Tommy von Brunsen introducing the daily economic update from Handelsbanken. He starts in Sweden, discussing the KI-barometer where the main index rose from 100.9 to 101.7, indicating normal economic conditions. A key point is the significant shift in employment plans within the construction sector, now below normal levels. The episode then moves to Sweden's financial policy, noting a press conference on the superannuation report, which shows a more positive view on certificates. With tax cuts and increased defense spending, the state expects a surplus this year, increasing through 2026 and 2027, but requires borrowing 216 billion in nominal tax obligations, up from a previous forecast of 146 billion. Liquidity in the market is described as good, aided by the Riksbank's actions. Monthly data from SCB shows moving interest rates dropping, with the average housing interest rate falling to 2.7% in October and 74% of housing loans having moving rates. The euro area barometer shows a marginal rise to 97.0, still below normal, with weak consumer confidence but brighter service sectors, indicating a slow recovery. ECB's October policy meeting protocol suggests the next change is more likely a rate reduction, with forecasts pointing to March next year. Data from Japan includes inflation at 2.8%, unchanged unemployment at 2.6%, and stronger-than-expected retail and industrial production for October. Market updates note thin trade due to Thanksgiving in the US, with European stocks up marginally and Nordic indices steering higher. Currency markets were calm, with the Swedish krona strengthening slightly. Oil prices rose over 1% but have a downward trend since summer. Today's focus is on Swedish data, including retail figures and GDP for Q3, with Bloomberg consensus expecting 1.1% growth. Other data includes Norwegian retail and unemployment, German unemployment at 9:55, and preliminary inflation figures from Germany and France. Looking ahead to next week, key data includes purchasing managers' indices from Sweden, the US, Japan, and China, preliminary EU inflation on Tuesday, and Swedish inflation on Thursday expected to drop to 2.4%. European unemployment and Q3 GDP updates are due on Friday. US data includes ADP employment, consumer confidence, and household income/consumption for September. On the central bank front, Fed Chair Powell speaks on Tuesday but won't discuss monetary policy ahead of the quiet period, with the next Fed meeting on December 10.

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