AI started by replacing programmers, then musicians, actors, lawyers, and now property sales are under pressure.
The episode begins with a standard disclaimer and introduction, noting it's Thursday, February 12th. The host jumps to slide two, listing five dominant market stories: the ongoing rotation, investor worries about growth, losses in AI/tech investments, Republican opposition to Trump regarding a Canada policy, and a strong US jobs report. He emphasizes that while broad indexes are flat, significant churn is happening beneath the surface. The host introduces AI as a key theme, showing on slide four how it sequentially hit programmers, musicians, actors, lawyers, and most recently, property sales. Slide five highlights specific property service companies, Jones Lang LaSalle and CBRE Group, which fell 10% yesterday. He then discusses the film sector, noting the S&P 500 Movies and Entertainment index is down 30% from its 2025 peak, partly due to a new AI model creating realistic content. A specific example is given of a deepfake film featuring Thomas Cruise and Brad Pitt debating Jeffrey Epstein. The host shifts to the Magnificent 7 index, noting it's stalling and 4% down from last year, with Microsoft down 16% this year. He recalls a similar correction in February 2025 that led to broader market sales. Slide 11 illustrates the definitive rotation: investors are moving into quality, low volatility, and value shares while avoiding small caps and cyclicals. The host contrasts this with 2025's preference for growth and cyclical stocks. He discusses BankInvest's regime indicator signaling a shift to a 'late swing market' with flattening growth estimates, though growth remains high at an expected 2.4% for 2026. Feedback from a previous meeting is mentioned regarding industrial stocks' high P/E ratios, linked to AI's impact. The host outlines the evolution of AI: from ChatGPT in 2022, through 'Nvidia years' and 'consumer AI years', to the current 'business AI and real economy' phase, exemplified by Clodentropic. He questions if investors are underestimating AI's real economic impact, similar to past underestimations of chip and AI demand. The VIX index is noted as still low. The US jobs report showed 130,000 new employees, the highest since December 2024, but wage growth is disappointing at 3.52% annually. The host details a K-shaped economy where AI affects different job types unevenly: low-skilled labor sees lower wage increases, men have slightly higher wage growth than women, and job-changers' wage advantages are shrinking. High wage increases are seen in public employment and construction, while trade, transport, and hospitality sectors lag. The episode ends with a look ahead to jobless claims, Trump's potential veto on Canada, European discussions, and positive US stock futures.
