Money Tree Investing · Money Tree Investing Podcast

WAR… Huge Impacts On Your Portfolio If You Don't Do This

·51 min·3 clips

A conflict around the Strait of Hormuz can become an oil shock, and oil shocks can turn into stagflation risk.

1. Money Tree Investing focuses on war news, market volatility, and portfolio risk during a week of rapid swings. 2. Kirk Chisholm hosts with Doug Hagrin, who challenges Kirk on how to tell a bull market from a bear market. 3. The episode asks what investors should do when the market no longer behaves predictably because of conflict and energy shocks. 4. Kirk says Monday through Friday brought different market reactions, including up days, red days, and a strong U.S. dollar. 5. He argues that many selloffs are really leverage unwinding, not cash moving neatly into bonds or safer assets. 6. Kirk uses Microsoft and leverage to show how borrowed exposure can disappear when positions are closed. 7. Doug explains that a pairs trade can buy semiconductors and short software, which helps explain recent moves in software stocks. 8. Kirk says hedge funds may have been shorting software and now have to buy it back to close positions. 9. Doug raises stagflation risk by pointing to 92,000 lost jobs, 4.4% unemployment, and 3.8% year-over-year wage growth. 10. He says oil near $90 a barrel and a possible Strait of Hormuz disruption could hit transport, food, and consumer prices. 11. Kirk says the current move looks like rotation, not collapse, because energy, defense, gold, and commodities are holding. 12. He names credit spreads, bank stress, treasury auction failures, and liquidity freezes as the real collapse signals to watch. 13. Doug says the dollar is rising because markets want liquidity and safety during fear. 14. Kirk says the dollar still faces long-term fragility from deficits, sovereign debt, and treasury issuance. 15. Kirk repeatedly warns that buying the dip only works in bull markets and that bear markets reward caution instead. 16. He says cash is useful in war because it preserves optionality when the next move is unknowable. 17. The tone is practical and market-focused, with Kirk giving examples and Doug pressing for definitions. 18. The format is a back-and-forth discussion that mixes macro commentary, trading rules, and portfolio management. 19. Investors worried about war, oil, and risk management will get the most from this episode. 20. Passive buyers who want simple market optimism may skip it.

As heard by us

A practical market read on how war, oil, and markets collide.

MoneyTree Investing turns a war-heavy news cycle into a market conversation. It keeps pulling the thread back to oil, jobs, liquidity, supply routes, and the Strait of Hormuz, so the risk picture stays tied to things investors already watch.

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Why you'd press play

When war headlines hit and oil spikes, you want a steadier way to think about markets.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

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