Money Tree Investing · Money Tree Investing Podcast

WAR… And No Market Crash… Is That Bullish or Bearish… Let's Find Out

·55 min·5 clips

Kirk Chisholm ties March Madness unpredictability to market volatility, hinting at war risks and bracket-busting shifts.

This episode of the Money Tree Investing Podcast examines market behavior during geopolitical conflict, hosted by Kirk Chisholm and his co-host Doug. The hosts use the unpredictability of March Madness as a metaphor for current economic conditions. They frame the discussion around whether ongoing war without a market crash signals a bullish or bearish environment. The conversation begins by contrasting recent market narratives of a soft landing and rate cuts with new risks like war and oil volatility. Kirk references a specific strategy discussed in a prior episode about moving to the sidelines when a war begins. He states they have been "spot on" with that prediction regarding recent market movements. Doug connects the concept of gambling to market participation, suggesting people "need something to gamble on." The dialogue touches on weakening jobs and housing data as factors questioning the prevailing economic narrative. They briefly analogize major tech stocks, the "MAG7," to vulnerable number-one seeds in a tournament. A key insight is the hosts' argument that investors should "be doing a whole lot of nothing" during wartime, which they clarify is distinct from passive buy-and-hold investing. Kirk expresses a retrospective view that they "probably should have hammered the table harder" on their sideline strategy. The comparison of financial markets to a coliseum where "bread" must be thrown to the people presents a cynical view of market engagement. The persistent theme is the market's capacity for sudden upsets and momentum shifts, mirroring sports tournaments. The tone is conversational and opinionated, blending sports commentary with direct market analysis. The style is informal, featuring casual banter between the hosts about hockey versus basketball. Listeners interested in tactical, event-driven investment strategies during geopolitical crises would find this episode relevant. Those who prefer strictly data-driven analysis without sports metaphors or speculative market timing might choose to skip it.

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