If this were Doomsday, Markets would Show It (Alyosha)

·58 min·5 clips

JJ explains how Iran could destroy Israel's desalination plants and Trump could send Iran into the Stone Age.

The episode begins with hosts Travis Ricciardo and Jonas Dorling introducing JJ, a guest with extensive experience as a pit trader in commodities like metals and energy. JJ writes under the substack name Ali Osha, known for his historical context and humorous style. The interview starts with a focus on geopolitics, specifically the Middle East conflict, where JJ describes it as a violent negotiation rather than a war, highlighting asymmetrical WMD risks involving water desalination and electricity. He argues that markets are not reacting to these tensions, suggesting inertia or complacency. JJ then explains his daily market analysis process using fractal charts and discusses gold's high price, noting it reflects institutional money flow and acts as a stable value anchor. He shares insights on silver's volatile rally in early 2025, emphasizing the importance of exiting trades early. The conversation shifts to JJ's trading philosophy, stressing participation, loss management, and the necessity of hard stops, illustrated by personal stories like losing money in Lehman and Refco. JJ also talks about his writing, aiming to preserve market experiences through over a million words on Substack. He concludes by advocating for humility in trading, based on his own losses and recovery. The episode ends with thanks to sponsors and a disclaimer.

As heard by us

A pit trader's history lesson on whether prices still speak before the story arrives.

Markets are meant to move before the story catches up, and this episode tests that belief through JJ's memory of an older information cycle. Writing as Ali Osha on Substack, he recalls starting early at Connie Commodities under Continental Grain, rolling up Dow Jones tapes,…

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Want a blunt test for market panic? Listen for JJ's old-floor instinct: if this were really the end of the world, would gold and stocks be unchanged?

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