Matrix Podcast · Social Science Matrix

Making Sense of the Elections of 2024

December 17, 2024·1 hr 23 min·7 clips

South Africa's ANC dropped below 50% in 2024, revealing deep fractures in post-apartheid democracy.

This episode features James Vernon, director of UC Berkeley's Global Democracy Commons, hosting a panel with journalist Kwanele Sosibo, political scientist Alison Post, historian Trevor Jackson, and anthropologist Arti Sethi. They analyze the 2024 elections in South Africa, Mexico, Europe, and India to understand global democratic shifts. The panelists explore whether recent votes represent a revolt against incumbents or a deeper crisis of political legitimacy. In South Africa, the ANC fell below 50% for the first time since 1994, securing only about 40% of the vote. A new party called MK, led by former president Jacob Zuma, emerged and nearly won a majority in the key province of KwaZulu-Natal. The ANC formed a coalition government with the white-led Democratic Alliance to circumvent the MK's rise. Sosibo links the ANC's decline to internal erosion, patronage systems, and public frustration over issues like corruption and xenophobic tensions. In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum won a landslide victory with 61% of the vote as the handpicked successor to President AMLO. Her Morena party gained commanding control of Congress, enabling potential constitutional changes. Post describes AMLO's program as economic populism that strengthened the state, rolled out new social programs, and used anti-elite, nationalist rhetoric. She notes his administration elevated the military's role in public works and security while restricting foreign investment in sectors like energy. In Europe, Trevor Jackson notes incumbents lost in 40 of 54 national elections worldwide since 2021, framing many results as a repudiation of prior politics rather than a coherent new vision. In France, Macron's party survived only through tactical voting by the left to block the far right. Britain's Conservative Party was annihilated after 14 years, while Italy's government shifted to the far-right Brothers of Italy led by Giorgia Meloni. Jackson observes widespread political instability and difficulty reconstructing a center. In India, the BJP returned to power but lost its parliamentary majority, forcing Narendra Modi into a coalition government for the first time since 2014. The election dented Modi's image as an invincible leader, with the BJP suffering key losses in its northern strongholds. Sethi argues the campaign highlighted a return to "pocketbook" economic issues over communal rhetoric, revealing limits to Modi's Hindu nationalist politics. She notes a decade of jobless growth, crony capitalism, and social inequality undermined his cross-caste coalition. A surprising insight is that Mexico's 2024 election, which affirmed the incumbent, might be the exception that proves a global rule of anti-incumbent revolt. Jackson suggests successful new political movements often create exclusionary identities and perform a "romance" of overcoming social rules, which resonates more than left-wing universalist projects. Sethi describes a shift in India from a rights-based framework to a "techno-patrimonialism" where the state issues targeted cash transfers, personalizing welfare through Modi's paternalistic image. The panel finds that economic distress and loss of faith in institutions are driving voter revolts, but the forms vary: in South Africa, it's fragmentation; in Europe, a lurch rightward; in India, a symbolic blow to a populist. Post notes AMLO's anti-system rhetoric in Mexico successfully channeled working-class and indigenous support against neoliberal elites. Sosibo connects South Africa's political stasis to a historical compromise that left economic power in white hands post-apartheid. The tone is academic and conversational, with panelists offering detailed, region-specific analyses grounded in historical and political context. The style is educational, featuring references to scholars like Christopher Jaffrelot and Yamini Aiyar, while maintaining an accessible discussion format. Listeners interested in comparative politics, democratic theory, and the material drivers of global electoral shifts will find this episode deeply engaging. Those seeking a narrow focus on U.S. elections or a more opinion-driven, less academic discussion might prefer to skip it.

As heard by us

A wide election discussion that treats ballots as symptoms of larger democratic and economic strain.

This panel uses elections as a window into wider democratic strain, folding liberal democracy together with capitalism, settler colonialism, imperialism, and slavery.

Read the full review in PlayNext →

Why you'd press play

Want election analysis that connects democracy to capitalism, xenophobia, and democratic crisis?

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Matrix Podcast