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Gold mit Umkehrsignal! – Geht es wieder los? | Fast & Forex

·38 min·3 clips

Donald Trump's return sparks market turmoil as gold signals a reversal and peace talks hang in the balance.

1. Wieland Aalt presents Fast & Forex on March 26, 2026 from Colombia, where Semana Santa is beginning, while tracking the ongoing Iran conflict and its effect on oil, currencies, and gold. 2. Aalt presents solo; no guests feature in this episode. 3. The episode's core thesis is that rising oil prices driven by the Iran situation are feeding inflation, which has put a rate hike — not a cut — back on the table, and this changes the logic for the dollar, gold, and all other assets. 4. The FedWatch Tool shows 93.8% probability that the April 29 FOMC meeting holds rates at 3.5-3.75%, but 6.2% now price a hike to 3.75-4.0%, which Aalt says was not even a consideration weeks earlier. 5. US import prices have risen at their fastest four-year rate, which Aalt identifies as a direct link between oil prices, imported inflation, and the possibility of Fed action in April. 6. The US dollar index is fighting with the $100 level, which was once a long-term support and is now a major resistance after polarity reversal; Aalt targets $101.50 as the first breakout level, then $102.50, and ultimately $105 for a significant move. 7. EUR/USD is in its third consecutive week defending the 1.15 support level while also capped by resistance at 1.16; Aalt warns that a break below 1.1410 opens the path to 1.12 and potentially a return to the 2022-2025 lateral range around 1.06. 8. Aalt notes a strong euro is not straightforwardly good for European consumers: a weak euro raises the cost of oil (priced in dollars) and other dollar-denominated imports, feeding inflation back through the economy. 9. USD/JPY is approaching the 162 resistance area from the April 29, 2024 weekly high; Aalt expects a pullback toward 162.50 before the dollar resumes toward 163-165. 10. GBP/USD has been resold at every short-term rally attempt for three consecutive weeks; Aalt targets 1.30-1.31 as the next support and favors further pound weakness. 11. The Australian dollar is declining toward 0.6820 and then 0.6720 as the strong-dollar narrative takes hold; Aalt had previously held a bullish view and admits this was 'very tricky.' 12. EUR/CHF remains on Aalt's watch, with the 0.9250 area serving as a resistance cluster where the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converge with a downtrend line; he sees the euro continuing to correct against the franc. 13. Gold fell to $4,100, overshooting Aalt's prior $4,800 downside target by a significant margin, but formed a hammer candle at the 50-day simple moving average — a potential reversal signal. 14. Aalt's confirmation criteria for the gold reversal are explicit: the hammer must hold through Friday and the week's high must be cleared on Monday for a buy signal, with a medium-term path back toward $5,500-6,000. 15. Silver is watching for a Piercing Pattern formation: the current week's green candle must close above the midpoint of the prior red candle (roughly $62.80) to confirm a reversal; Aalt targets $90-92 as a swing target from there. 16. Oil's weekly chart has been pure noise since the March 9th spike to $119-120, with candles Aalt describes as 'practically not negotiable'; the market is simply waiting for information from the Iran negotiations. 17. The binary oil outcome: an Iran peace deal returns the price toward $65-70 (the pre-war breakout level), while continued conflict eventually reproduces the $120 spike; Aalt recommends small positions and short-term horizons for those actively trading oil. 18. Bitcoin is stuck below $80,000, Ethereum below $2,200, and Solana drifting toward $62-63; Aalt targets $60,000 then $50,000 for Bitcoin, $1,500-1,600 for Ethereum, and $50 for Solana as the next levels to watch. 19. The tone is deliberately measured and risk-averse; Aalt repeatedly says 'risks predominate' and advises 'defensive rather than offensive' positioning given the number of unresolved macro variables. 20. Active multi-asset traders monitoring currencies, precious metals, oil, and crypto simultaneously in a geopolitically volatile environment will find the episode most relevant.

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