BREAKING: ISM Chair Steve Miller Reviews the Latest March ISM Services Report

·17 min·1 clip

ISM Chair Steve Miller reveals the March Services PMI hit 54, showing surprising strength in new orders amid employment weakness.

The episode begins with hosts Lewis Weiss and Amy Nicklaus introducing guest Steve Miller, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management. Miller immediately dives into the March ISM Services PMI report, noting a reading of 54, slightly down from last month but above the 12-month average. He explains that new orders showed strong strength, while employment weakened significantly. Miller points out an anomaly where slowing supply speed indicates business strength, as it reflects high demand. The conversation shifts to price increases, with Miller detailing how diesel and gasoline prices have been down for months but are now up, impacting costs. Hosts share personal anecdotes about airline price spikes, with Miller noting a 40% month-over-month increase in jet fuel. Miller expresses surprise at the 7.7 percentage point jump in prices and the sharp drop in employment, attributing the latter to companies using temporary labor cuts as a short-term fix. He connects fuel cost risks to the Middle East conflict, mentioning Iran's threat to close a strait. The discussion broadens to include AI demand, with Miller observing short supplies in memory components and processors, and citing two AI data centers being built near his Texas home. When asked how the report affects consumers, Miller advises booking flights early to hedge against potential oil price surges, noting that food costs may also rise due to transportation impacts. He clarifies that the PMI's expansion threshold is effectively 48, not 50, meaning the 54 reading indicates stronger growth. In closing, Miller emphasizes that nine of ten service indexes are in expansion, with only employment contracting, but warns that oil costs could impact consumer spending and goods costs going forward. The episode ends with hosts thanking Miller and promoting the show's website.

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