Making Markets · Colossus | Investing & Business Podcasts

Quarterly Market Recap: Q1 2025 - [Making Markets, EP.60]

·45 min·2 clips

The tariff announcement shocked the market because a 10% rate became the lower bound, not the ceiling.

1. Making Markets episode 60 covers the Q1 2025 market recap recorded on April 15, 2025, with Eric Golden and the host comparing the first quarter to the days after April 2. 2. Eric Golden is the CEO of Canopy Capital and the market commentator whose bond-market perspective shapes the discussion. 3. The episode asks what the market was pricing before the tariff shock and what changed after the April 2 announcement. 4. The host says the S&P was down just over 4.5%, the Nasdaq 10.5%, and Bitcoin almost 12% during the first quarter. 5. Golden says the post-election market went to “turbo mode” on beliefs about deregulation, lower corporate taxes, and continued AI enthusiasm. 6. He argues that markets are driven by expectations, not just outcomes, and that January 2025 priced “perfection” and continued growth. 7. Golden points to S&P earnings of 240 in 2024 and expectations around 270 for 2025 as evidence that valuations were still rich. 8. He says multiples in the 20s do not resemble recession pricing, and contrasts that with mid-teens or lower multiples when markets are truly stressed. 9. The tariff announcement on April 2 is described as a shock because the expected 10% tariff became a lower bound rather than a ceiling. 10. Golden says the upper bound moved into the 30s and then higher as China and the U.S. escalated their moves. 11. He says the stock market fell 20%, the 10-year Treasury moved roughly 70 to 80 basis points in a couple of days, and the muni market moved about 150 basis points. 12. Golden highlights treasury basis swap unwinds as a concrete mechanism behind the bond-market move. 13. He also raises the possibility that foreign banks and countries, including China, were selling into Treasury stress, while saying that motive is easier to infer than prove. 14. The discussion covers how the bond-market break forced attention because Treasury volatility can affect funding, leverage, and broader capital allocation. 15. Golden says the market is still pricing growth in earnings around 9% year over year, which he thinks is hard to justify given the policy uncertainty. 16. He worries that corporations will keep guiding earnings down because they cannot forecast pricing, supply chains, or demand with confidence. 17. The Fed section centers on inflation pass-through, unemployment, and the risk that tariffs could create a slower-growth environment without immediate liquidity stress. 18. Golden compares the current environment to prior crises and says it feels sloppy and uncertain rather than like 2008 or COVID. 19. The episode is a back-and-forth market conversation with a macro, bond-market emphasis and frequent references to Trump, Bessent, Lutnick, China, and tariffs. 20. Listeners who follow markets, bonds, tariffs, and Fed policy will get the most from this episode; listeners seeking a short company-specific stock story may skip it.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Making Markets