ДЕНЬ 1480: НЕФТЯНОЙ КРИЗИС

March 14, 2026·56 min·4 clips

Mark Feigin explains how Trump's oil sanction waiver gives Putin a 'carte blanche' to continue the war in Ukraine.

1. Feigin Live's 'Day 1480' broadcast features host Mark Feigin and co-host Alyona Kurbanova on the Kurbanova Live channel, opening with a discussion of negative geopolitical trends around oil sanctions and the US-Iran war. 2. Feigin is the primary analyst; no external guests appear in the segment covered by the transcript. 3. The episode's central question is whether Trump's temporary pause on US sanctions against Russian oil — justified as a response to Hormuz Strait disruption — is a deliberate strategic concession to Moscow or an improvised energy-market response. 4. Italy's vice prime minister publicly called on the EU to weaken oil sanctions in the same week as Trump's US pause, and Belgium's prime minister called for opening negotiations with Russia, while Orban and Fico maintained standing pro-Russia positions. 5. Feigin argues Trump could have addressed the Hormuz crisis through military escalation — specifically a land operation on the Iranian coast — rather than through a sanctions pause that signals Russia can benefit from the conflict without concessions. 6. Feigin names the core mechanism as 'communicating vessels': the Hormuz blockade raises global oil prices, which increases European demand for Russian oil, which gives Moscow additional revenue for its Ukraine war and leverage to demand permanent sanctions removal. 7. He estimates Russia's Ukraine war costs approximately $1 billion per day, meaning that even 10-20 days of elevated oil revenue from Hormuz disruption provides meaningful battlefield resources. 8. Feigin states that Moscow may even be passing funds to Iranian forces to intensify tanker attacks on the Strait, as doing so raises oil prices and increases Russian export revenues simultaneously. 9. The US has already lost 13 soldiers in the Iran conflict per Feigin's account: five pilots shot down by Iranian air defense, and eight others killed at American bases in Middle Eastern countries, with Moscow providing targeting intelligence to Iran. 10. Feigin presents three military options he argues are under active Pentagon discussion: capturing Kharg Island (through which 90% of Iranian oil and gas exports pass); landing paratroopers on the Iranian Hormuz coastline to suppress drone operations; or supplying weapons to protest cities that fell during Iran's January 2025 uprising to ignite an armed insurgency. 11. The third option — arming protesters — is assessed as potentially producing far more than tens of thousands of civilian casualties on both sides, but Feigin argues it represents the fastest path to collapsing the Islamic Republic without a nuclear escalation. 12. On Trump's political character, Feigin argues Trump is both 'adequate and inadequate simultaneously' — capable of sound decisions when constrained by experienced advisors, but prone to stopping military campaigns at critical moments, as he did during the June 2025 twelve-day Israel-Iran war when he halted operations prematurely. 13. Feigin's core analytical argument is stated bluntly: weakening sanctions on Russia without a peace agreement tells Moscow that continuing the war — not signing a deal — is the path to obtaining everything it wants, fundamentally undermining any Ukraine ceasefire negotiation. 14. He notes that Trump simultaneously weakened Russian oil sanctions and allowed Moscow to provide intelligence on US military positions to Iran, describing this as Trump protecting Ukrainian drones on American bases while telling Kyiv not to accept military cooperation with the countries those bases serve. 15. On Ukraine-Israel cooperation, Feigin is confident that Israel sent Ukraine a request through the media for anti-drone systems negotiations, and that agreements likely exist but are not publicly disclosed; he also notes Reza Pahlavi's meeting with Zelensky as likely covering military technology exchange. 16. Feigin argues Ukraine is 'the main military country in Europe' with the most combat-experienced army and established wartime production, making it a logical partner for Gulf states — UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain — seeking anti-drone and interception capabilities against Iranian attacks. 17. The episode's framing of the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran conflicts as structurally linked through oil markets, intelligence sharing, and proxy coordination represents Feigin's consistent analytical line across multiple broadcasts. 18. The tone is direct and often blunt, with Feigin frequently using strong language to describe political decisions he considers incoherent; co-host Kurbanova poses questions and occasionally challenges his framing. 19. Best for listeners following the Russia-Ukraine war and US-Iran conflict simultaneously, especially those interested in the economic linkages between the two wars. 20. Listeners seeking balanced or neutral geopolitical commentary may find Feigin's strongly anti-Kremlin and anti-Trump framing too partisan.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from ФЕЙГИН LIVE