Иван Зуенко: про полдень XXI века в Китае

·41 min·4 clips

Ivan Zuenko describes living in China's 'half-day of the 21st century,' where TV shows harmony and high-speed trains erase reality gaps.

The episode features an interview with Ivan Zuenko, a lecturer at MGIMO and author of a book on China under Xi Jinping. Zuenko opens by describing his experience in China as living in a 'half-day of the 21st century,' a reference to the Strugatsky brothers, highlighting the country's prosperity, harmony, and advanced infrastructure like high-speed railways. He contrasts this with the Soviet Union, where propaganda and reality clashed, noting China lacks such dissonance in big cities. Zuenko argues that China's current success is not unprecedented but mirrors historical periods like the Yuan era described by Marco Polo, representing a return to civilizational power after a crisis in the 19th century. He acknowledges side effects and challenges, suggesting China's rapid growth may be slowing into stagnation, which can be mistaken for prosperity. The host raises the issue of whether critical books about China can be published given the current official 'love' for China, but Zuenko disagrees, stating there is no censorship in Russia regarding China and that skepticism persists in Russian discourse. Zuenko explains the scarcity of Russian books on China, citing a three-sided problem: publishers distrust domestic authors and prefer translations, academics are too busy, and the audience is skeptical. He emphasizes his book aims for balance, criticizing and praising where due. The discussion turns to China's opacity, with Zuenko agreeing that decision-making under Xi Jinping is a 'black box,' but his book focuses on the past decade (2012-2022) using travel notes and accumulated data rather than current events. He mentions plans for a future podcast on China during COVID-19, noting its impact on the economy and parallels to the Cultural Revolution. Zuenko highlights the significance of late 2022 protests and the abrupt end of restrictions as pivotal moments. When asked about the next decade, Zuenko uses terms like 'black swan' and 'gray rhino' to describe unpredictability, citing unknowns like Trump's influence, Xi's health, and technological breakthroughs. He concludes that Xi Jinping has strengthened the Communist Party's power compared to 2011, making a Soviet-style collapse less likely in the near future. The episode ends with promotional details about Zuenko's book and an audiobook version.

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