Guerre en Iran : comment les marchés réagissent aux annonces de Trump
·28 min·2 clips
Markets surge 5% after Trump delays bombing Iran, revealing how presidential tweets directly move billions.
The episode begins with host Pierrick Fay introducing the topic of market reactions to the Iran war and Trump's announcements. Guest Corentin Chaperon, a financial markets expert at Les Echos, details how markets surged after Trump's ceasefire announcement, with the CAC 40 up 5% and oil prices dropping. He explains that this pushed back fears of a global energy shock. The conversation then explores why stock markets have been relatively resilient, with Wall Street down only 8% compared to larger drops during COVID or the Ukraine war. Chaperon contrasts this with bond and gold markets, which showed more worry about inflation. He notes that the U.S. is less sensitive to energy shocks due to being a net oil exporter. The discussion shifts to how Trump's communication affects markets, with his tweets often reversing trends. This leads to the concept of the 'Trump put' or TACO trade, where investors expect him to intervene when markets fall. The episode then introduces predictive markets like Polymarket and Calchi, platforms where users bet on events using crypto. Correspondent Solveig Godeluc in New York discusses examples of suspicious bets, such as one winning $400,000 on Maduro's removal. She explains concerns about insider trading, given the anonymity and crypto payments. The platforms are trying to self-regulate with surveillance systems. The episode notes that Trump's family is involved with these platforms, and regulators have been lenient. Finally, it covers how predictive markets might expand into margin trading, attracting hedge funds and becoming more like traditional financial markets.
