La Brújula de la Economía: El paro, el número de afiliados a la SS y la subida del petróleo (06/04/2026)

April 6, 2026·56 min·4 clips

Spain now buys more oil from the US than from Iraq or Libya, deepening its dependence on Washington.

1. La Brújula de la Economía on Onda Cero assembles liberal economists and market analysts to review Spain's March labour market data and the economic consequences of the Iran war. 2. The regular panel includes Professor Carlos Rodríguez Brown (liberal economist and author), John Muller (economic journalist and columnist), Bea Triguero (economist), and Ignacio Rodríguez Burgos (market analyst and regular contributor). 3. The episode's thesis is that both Spain's employment statistics and the Iran war's economic impact are being misrepresented or under-analysed in official government communications. 4. The Cores report is cited showing the United States has become Spain's largest oil and gas supplier: 620,000 tons of crude purchased in February, 14% of total imports, ahead of Iraq and Libya. 5. Spain is simultaneously more dependent on US gas than on Algerian gas, meaning Spanish energy security now depends substantially on Trump administration decisions. 6. Italy's four major northern airports restricted aviation fuel until Thursday, and Canary Island hoteliers raised concerns about flight links becoming economically unviable due to fuel price increases. 7. Prime Minister Sánchez's viral video wearing a Spanish national team shirt numbered 22 to celebrate 22 million social security affiliations is contested: the figure counts labour relations, not individual workers, and the PM's own Economy Minister used the correct term 'affiliations'. 8. Plural employment has reached historically high levels: over 600,000 people hold multiple jobs, meaning affiliation counts exceed actual employed individuals. 9. Bea Triguero explains that in March 2026, 56% of new contracts were temporary (with expiry dates), and the remaining 44% were split roughly equally between full-time permanent, part-time (by hours), and fijos discontinuos. 10. Fijos discontinuos who are inactive (estimated at 800,000 by USO) do not appear in unemployment registers, creating an anomaly where 11 Spanish provinces have more people collecting unemployment benefits than registered unemployed. 11. The 22 million figure is partly driven by immigration: 3.1 million foreign workers are currently affiliated with social security, approximately 15% of the total — a historically high proportion. 12. Professor Rodríguez Brown accepts the propaganda value of Sánchez's announcement while predicting the government will not produce a similar video when labour market data deteriorates due to the Iran war. 13. Israel attacked the Southpars petrochemical complex — the world's largest gas field — which supplies 50% of Iran's oil and gas output, removing approximately 7% of global petroleum production from the market. 14. John Muller argues this changes the strategic question: instead of 'when will Hormuz reopen?' it is now 'when will Iran's production capacity be rebuilt?' — which requires political resolution in Iran before any reconstruction investment can proceed. 15. Oil prices have risen 60% and gas prices have doubled since the conflict began; US gasoline surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, a 40% increase since late February. 16. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's shareholder letter raising the prospect of interest rate rises is described by Muller as cleverly targeted at Trump's political obsession with low rates. 17. Atlantic analyst Karim Sayyar's framework is cited: the Iranian regime faces no incentive to accept ceasefire terms because martyrdom is not as aversive for the ayatollahs as for the US, and regime survival is their only goal. 18. Historical examples cited for Iranian regime over-extension: the 444-day US diplomat hostage crisis, prolongation of the Iran-Iraq war, and support for Hamas after October 7 that destroyed Iran's regional proxy network. 19. The tone is analytical and collegial, with frequent light humour; the panel is clearly right-of-centre on economic policy, and Professor Rodríguez Brown provides the most pointed critique of government statistics. 20. Spanish business and economics listeners, or anyone following the macroeconomic consequences of the Iran-Israel conflict for Europe, will find the most value; casual listeners unfamiliar with Spanish labour market mechanics may find the fijos discontinuos discussion technical.

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