Juliana Rosa (Economia) · Grupo Bandeirantes

11/02/2026 - Galípolo reforça espaço para queda de juros em março

·11 min·1 clip

Gabriel Galípolo confirms the Central Bank still plans to cut interest rates in March.

1. Juliana Rosa's economics segment of 11 February 2026 centres on Gabriel Galipolo's latest signals on the timing and pace of Brazil's interest rate cuts. 2. Juliana Rosa hosts with Humberto and Larissa, returning from a book launch event for Maílson da Nóbrega's productivity-focused book. 3. The episode's central argument is that the interest rate debate is a symptom: the real question is why Brazil structurally requires rates as high as 12%, let alone 15%. 4. At a São Paulo financial market event, Galipolo said the Central Bank still expects to cut rates in March, but the decision on pace — gradual or slightly faster — remains open until the data is reviewed. 5. Galipolo warned that a debate framed only around whether rates fall from 15% to 12% misses the point, since 12% would itself remain very high. 6. He identified low productivity as one structural reason Brazil must maintain elevated rates, a framing that connects monetary policy to the education debate. 7. Brazilian workers produce approximately one-quarter of the output per worker of their US counterparts, with infrastructure, logistics, tax burden, and education quality all cited as contributing factors. 8. Rosa identifies education quality as the primary lever: public spending on education keeps rising in Brazil but output quality has not improved in proportion. 9. Maílson da Nóbrega's book 'O Brasil Ainda Pode Ser Um País Rico — O Desafio da Produtividade' was launched the previous day at an event Rosa attended. 10. Rosa noted her own book was on display alongside Nóbrega's at the event, describing the co-presence as 'a great honour.' 11. The window for rate cuts is time-limited by the election calendar: analysts cited in the segment argue the Central Bank should cut more aggressively in the first half of 2026, hold near the election, and potentially reach 12% or below by year-end. 12. The dollar is described as helping: it is strengthening the Bovespa, now near 190,000 points, with capital inflows that could slow further depreciation and give the Central Bank more room. 13. Rosa argues that even if nominal rates fall, if inflation falls faster, the real interest rate may not drop proportionally — keeping Brazil's effective borrowing cost elevated relative to peers. 14. No Brazilian businessperson can fund innovation at current credit costs, Rosa argues, which perpetuates the productivity trap. 15. To break the trap, Rosa lists legal security, a more open business environment, and reduced government cost as necessary complements to rate cuts. 16. Rosa reports a mood of discouragement among the businesspeople and bankers she speaks with: people are described as 'tired, hopeless, exhausted.' 17. Congress is characterised as dominated by lobbying interests — including a new round of subsidy requests — that block qualified public spending. 18. The tone is engaged and pointed; Rosa is openly pessimistic about the near-term quality of political debate while advocating for informed voting. 19. Listeners tracking Brazilian macroeconomics, Central Bank policy, or the 2026 election landscape would find the segment directly useful. 20. Listeners expecting neutral analysis or policy detail beyond the macro frame will find the segment editorially opinionated.

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