Juliana Rosa (Economia) · Grupo Bandeirantes

09/02/2026 - Calibragem é palavra-chave do Banco Central na política monetária, afirma Galípolo

·11 min·1 clip

Central Bank president Gabriel Galípolo says 'calibration' is the key word for interest rates, but what does that actually mean?

1. Juliana Rosa's economy segment of 9 February 2026 examines Central Bank president Gabriel Galipolo's signals on the pace of future interest rate cuts in Brazil. 2. Juliana Rosa hosts the segment alongside Oinegui, analysing Galipolo's speech at a Brazilian Association of Banks event. 3. The episode's core question is what 'calibration' means as the Central Bank's chosen word for its interest rate strategy: not a victory lap, but a careful, still-undetermined pace of cuts. 4. Galipolo acknowledged the Selic has already had an effect on both current inflation and future expectations, creating room to begin cutting in March. 5. At the same time, he cited the unemployment rate at a historic low and wages rising above inflation as reasons to move cautiously. 6. Brazil's Selic rate stands at 15% while the Central Bank's own 2026 IPCA inflation forecast, published that day, has fallen to 3.97%. 7. The gap between 15% and 3.97% produces an 11% real interest rate, which Rosa describes as prohibitive for any economy and as making bank deposits more attractive than factory expansion. 8. The year-end forecast for Selic sits at 12.25%, still high by any historical comparison for Brazil. 9. The appointment of Guilherme Mello — Secretary of Economic Policy with a heterodox academic background — to a Central Bank board seat signals the Lula government's dissatisfaction with the current rate level. 10. Rosa conducted a Friday interview with Guilherme Mello and played an excerpt on Jornal da Band; Mello argued his team includes both orthodox and heterodox economists. 11. Market reaction to Mello's appointment was negative, reflecting concerns that his views minimise inflation risk and favour high public spending to stimulate the economy. 12. Rosa identifies a credibility gap: officials including President Lula, Minister Haddad, and Mello all repeat the same fiscal-balance commitment, but Rosa asks whether they believe it, want listeners to believe it, or are simply repeating a mantra. 13. Roberto Campos Neto's predecessor — described as his 'grandfather' — is quoted as saying inflation results from government decisions, not from businessmen raising prices. 14. Rosa argues the structural risk is that Brazil is becoming increasingly susceptible to external shocks because of the lack of market trust in the fiscal strategy. 15. Public debt securities with prefixed values compound the vulnerability, as any credibility gap feeds directly into risk premiums. 16. The Orthodox vs. Heterodox divide inside the government is described by Mello himself as containing 'shades of grey,' with the joke that three economists in a room produce four solutions. 17. Rosa's tone is analytical but pointed; she does not hide scepticism of official messaging while presenting Mello's position fairly. 18. The segment is a short, dense radio economics commentary with two voices and no guests beyond the Mello interview excerpt. 19. Listeners who follow Brazilian macroeconomics, Central Bank policy, or the Lula government's fiscal choices will find the segment directly relevant. 20. Listeners unfamiliar with Brazilian economic institutions or seeking broader political context will find the segment too technical and narrow.

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