03/03/2026 - PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025, mas aponta desaceleração da economia
·7 min
The episode opens with Juliana Rosa discussing the Brazilian GDP growth for 2025, which was confirmed at 2.3% by IBGE. This represents a clear deceleration from the 3.4% growth seen in 2024. She notes that the economy moved sideways in the second half of 2025, with growth of only 0.1% in the fourth quarter and zero growth in the third quarter. The first semester of 2025 sustained the annual figure, while the latter half showed stagnation. Sectoral analysis reveals that services and agriculture were the main supports, while industry declined and business investments fell sharply by 3.5%. Family consumption also stopped growing. Juliana attributes this weakening to high interest rates, which inhibit investments and tighten consumer spending. She points out specific sectors like commerce and civil construction showing declines, even during typically strong sales periods like Black Friday and Christmas. The discussion then shifts to external factors, particularly an attack on Iran and its impact on oil prices and the dollar. This creates uncertainty for Brazil's inflation reduction process and planned interest rate cuts by the central bank. Juliana explains that while domestic conditions had improved, with inflation dropping to around 4%, the external shock poses a risk to monetary policy. The dollar's rise to 5.23 is highlighted as a concern, as it increases prices for fuel and food. The episode concludes with a reflection on how these external events disrupt Brazil's economic adjustments, delaying potential relief for indebted individuals.
