Jujuy se mueve inclusivo · Jujuy Se Mueve

🔴 "EL CRECIMIENTO QUE NO SE SIENTE: ANÁLISIS CON FRANCISCO LAMAS"

·14 min·1 clip

Francisco Lamas explains why Argentina's 3% growth forecast by the BID doesn't translate to better daily life for its people.

The episode features an analysis with Francisco Lamas on the disconnect between Argentina's economic growth forecasts and the lived experience of its population. It begins by differentiating the roles of international financial institutions like the World Bank, IMF, and BID, noting the BID focuses on the Americas. Lamas reveals that Argentina is currently the BID's main client, with approximately $10 billion in approved projects, a significant figure given the country's credit scarcity. The BID projects 3% growth for Argentina in 2024, similar to 2023, but Lamas questions this by pointing out that the economy only recently recovered to its 2011 peak after 15 years of stagnation. He emphasizes that this recovery is heterogeneous: sectors like hydrocarbons, mining, and financial intermediation are booming, while industry, construction, and commerce are severely depressed. Wage analysis shows most private-sector salaries are stagnant compared to late 2023, with only informal wages showing slight improvement. The discussion shifts to income distribution, noting it has worsened since 2017, which explains why growth isn't felt. Lamas highlights a surge in social spending, particularly on assistance programs, which has grown significantly since the Macri administration, explaining recent poverty reduction. Employment data is scrutinized, with a noted drop in registered employment offset by growth in informal jobs, lowering overall job quality. A key point is that Argentina's population has grown by about 10 million since 2011, so per capita economic output has actually fallen. The episode concludes with a historical digression on populism, tracing its origins to 19th-century Prussia and the transition from capitalism to state-assisted models, where aid can become electoral clientelism. Lamas contrasts this with countries like Denmark, which combine free markets with high taxes for social welfare without trade restrictions.

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