TV7 Middle East Review – Analyzing June 2023

·28 min·2 clips

Why is Saudi-Israeli normalization stalled by a Palestinian condition Netanyahu's government can't meet?

The episode begins by introducing the monthly Middle East Review show, with Amir Oren hosting in place of Dania Yalon and joined by guest Eran Lerman. The primary focus is the Saudi-Israeli normalization track, which has seen little ground progress. Lerman questions whether Saudi Arabia is truly ready for full normalization akin to the Abraham Accords, suggesting gradualism and caution. He notes existing covert cooperation between the two nations, reducing the urgency for formal embassies. Saudi conditions are broken into three parts: Palestinian political progress, advanced American weapon systems, and civilian nuclear activity. Lerman argues the Palestinian condition is not a top Saudi priority but a way to avoid regional deterioration; their real aims are stronger U.S. commitments and nuclear capabilities. The discussion shifts to Israeli domestic politics, where Prime Minister Netanyahu faces pressure from right-wing coalition partners, complicating progress on the Palestinian front. Lerman references the Aqaba process as a tool for conflict management, though Netanyahu's government has been accused of not fulfilling commitments due to settlement expansions. Internal Israeli tensions are highlighted by a joint statement from the heads of the IDF, Shin Bet, and police denouncing radical Jewish nationalists, which a government minister compared to the Wagner Group. This reflects a rift within Netanyahu's coalition and the defense establishment. The episode then explores the Saudi nuclear demand, with Israel historically wary of proliferation. Lerman suggests a compromise on fuel cycle control might be possible, similar to UAE arrangements. He warns that if Iran breaks the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty with impunity, it could trigger a cascade of nuclear ambitions in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt. The conversation touches on regional security, including Iranian meddling via proxies like Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the West Bank, and the need for Israel to balance counter-terrorism with preventing civilian clashes. Lerman emphasizes that the IDF prefers targeted raids over large-scale invasions to avoid distraction from the Iranian threat. The episode concludes by noting the broader regional drift, with Chinese and Iranian influences, and sets the stage for next month's review.

As heard by us

A focused read on how Saudi demands collide with Israel's coalition politics and the security logic around Iran.

Middle East Review treats Saudi-Israeli normalization less as a diplomatic headline than as a pressure test for Israel's domestic politics. Amir Oren, sitting in for Dania Yalon, asks Eran Lerman whether Riyadh's reported terms - movement on the Palestinian front, civilian…

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Why you'd press play

For a close read of Saudi-Israeli normalization, Palestinian political progress, and the pressures around Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition, this is your conversation.

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