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Russia-U.S. tensions in the Medeast theater; threat of escalation - Jerusalem Studio

·28 min·2 clips
Why are Russian and American forces clashing over Syria when both are focused on Ukraine and counter-terrorism?
The episode opens with host Reuven Ben Shalom framing a paradox: U.S.-Russia tensions are rising in Syria even as the U.S. reduces its Middle East footprint and Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. Panelist Amir Oren challenges the image of a monolithic Russian command, noting inefficiencies and lessons from Syria applied to Ukraine. Doron Gavish details recent clashes, such as Russian pilots flying unsafely near U.S. Reaper drones, interpreting them as Russia asserting control. Eran Lerman contextualizes Syria as Russia's last significant international asset, with the collapse of the Astana process increasing its need to demonstrate influence. The discussion shifts to military dynamics: drones reduce escalation risks compared to manned aircraft, but severed U.S.-China military communications highlight dangers of miscalculation. Gavish assesses U.S. air superiority but notes both sides lack recent great-power combat experience, making initial clashes unpredictable. Historical precedents like Turkey shooting down a Russian plane show crises can be mitigated through backchannels. Lerman explains Russia's deconfliction with Israel stems from respect for Israeli Air Force capabilities, not just diplomacy. The panel explores broader interests: Russia seeks Mediterranean access but avoids a second front, while Turkey's NATO moves and drone supplies to Ukraine complicate its relationship with Russia. Oren raises the ongoing Daesh threat, focusing on prisoner dilemmas. In the final segment, Oren reveals Israel's covert, lethal role in the anti-ISIS coalition as an 'invisible member,' a rarely acknowledged contribution. The episode wraps with hopes for continued deconfliction and stability.

As heard by us

A Syria-focused look at how small air incidents could widen U.S.-Russia tensions.

Jerusalem Studio turns a familiar Syria question into a timely one, looking at how U.S. and Russian forces can come into contact even as Washington reduces its Levant presence and Moscow remains tied up in Ukraine.

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Why you'd press play

If Syria airspace makes you reach for the deconfliction line, this is your briefing today.

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