ITM Trading Podcast · The Daniela Cambone Show and Taylor Made Economics

Rosenberg Nails It: Called for “Humungous” Dips in Gold, Silver — $6,000 Not Off the Table

·25 min·2 clips

David Rosenberg explains why he sold silver at $75 after buying at $20, warning about parabolic moves.

The room has energy. At the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, Danielle brings David Rosenberg into a market that had already seen silver up 15% earlier in the day. Rosenberg feels the charge, but he does not let the crowd do his thinking for him. The 1999 tech conference comparison is the tell. He sees the metals move as phenomenal, and still hears enough excitement in the room to stay careful. Then he pivots to the S&P 500, where his valuation warning gets sharper. By his read, the Shiller PE multiple is too stretched. With the CAPE multiple pressing against 40, he says investors are getting about a 2.5% real earnings yield. The 30-year real yield in the United States sits around 2.65%, which leaves equities with a negative 15-basis-point risk premium by his math. That is the part he cannot get past. Rosenberg thinks investors are behaving as if AI has made stocks close to riskless. He does not buy that story. Equities still come with real risk, and bonds have their own fiscal, duration, monetary-policy, and cyclical problems. The apple cart, as he sees it, is upside down. The conversation keeps circling back to whether investors are being paid enough for what they own, including why government bond default fears are not central to his view. Canada gets pulled into the reckoning too. Rosenberg says housing affordability is still badly strained even with lower rates, which means the Bank of Canada likely has more cutting ahead. Prices may have to help. For the GTA, he expects much of the reset to come through probably at least a 10% to 20% home-price correction.

As heard by us

A blunt market interview that ties metals excitement to valuation risk and housing pressure.

David Rosenberg uses a live conference interview to link metals, valuations, risk, and what markets are pricing. He moves from the gold and silver buzz to the Shiller PE, the equity risk premium, bond market certainty, and housing affordability before landing on the Bank of…

Read the full review in PlayNext →

Why you'd press play

If you want a cold read on the metals frenzy, this one cuts straight through it.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from ITM Trading Podcast