Deal or No Deal With Iran?

·1 hr 5 min·5 clips

Shira smiles tragically as her teens have learned to distinguish between interception booms and direct hits during a missile alert.

The episode begins with host Nery Zilber in Tel Aviv, noting a missile alert just before recording. He is joined by Israel Policy Forum's Michael Koplow and RAND Corporation's Shira Efron. The first major topic is Donald Trump's recent 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, which was then extended, raising questions about potential diplomacy. Michael Koplow is pessimistic about a deal, arguing it would require a U.S. climb-down on nuclear demands, while Shira Efron notes Iranian demands for sanctions relief and compensation. The analysis shifts to a military assessment three weeks into the war. Shira acknowledges operational achievements like leadership decapitation and U.S.-Israel integration but critiques the strategic focus on target degradation, comparing it to the McNamara fallacy. Michael outlines benefits like degraded Iranian capabilities but highlights unresolved issues: the nuclear file, the future regime in Tehran, and the posture of Gulf states. A central theme emerges on the divergent perceptions of the war. Shira cites polling showing over 80% Israeli support and a belief that the war strengthens U.S.-Israel ties. Michael counters with a detailed warning from Washington: growing Republican and Democratic skepticism that the war serves U.S. interests, which could politically damage the bilateral relationship long-term. The conversation briefly touches on the secondary front against Hezbollah in Lebanon, referencing Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's controversial statement about moving Israel's border to the Litani River. The episode closes with reflections on the upcoming Passover holiday amidst war and the potential impact of Israeli elections.

As heard by us

A measured war discussion that keeps Iran's unanswered strategic questions in view.

In week four of the war, Nery Zilber asks whether a deal with Iran is still possible, and whether it could arrive in the coming days if Donald Trump is to be believed.

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Why you'd press play

You get a clear-eyed check-in on week four of the war, with Iran deal chances, Washington and Israel's very different moods, and no easy answers handed to you.

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