2026 Geopolitical Predictions with Benyamin Moalem

·18 min

Shanna Fold opens the show with a new-year deep dive alongside legal analyst Benyamin Moalem. He comes on to make five predictions for 2026 tied to Israel and regional conflicts. The pace stays brisk right away. Fold and Moalem trade a bit of opening banter before moving into the forecast. Moalem says that if he had insider information, he could not share it, and he argues that Israel would need the tightest secrecy possible for any surprise strike on Iran. He points to reports that the prime minister sent a message to Iran via President Putin of Russia. In his framing, the message was that Israel would not attack if Iran did not attack first. He explains that Israel and Russia still keep a working relationship for strategic reasons. He adds that Russia and Iran remain closely connected, and notes Iran's support for Russia earlier in the war in Ukraine. He compares the situation to surprise warfare in 1973 and says Iran may want to wait and rebuild before retaliating against Israel. He says Israel is watching missile systems being built and does not want enemies to rebuild and attack again. The conversation then turns to whether this is the right time for Israel and the United States to attack Iran. Moalem lays out the case that pressure on the Iranian streets could create an opening. He quickly balances that with the opposite risk, saying an attack could also rally Iranians around the flag. From there he turns to Israeli elections. He says there will be elections this year. He identifies Netanyahu as the center of one bloc and Naftali Bennett as the current face of the anti-Netanyahu camp. He predicts that neither side will reach the 61-seat threshold needed to govern. In his view, the result will echo the deadlocks of 2019, with Arab parties probably taking around ten seats and another election likely in early 2027.

As heard by us

A concise geopolitical briefing with useful context.

Shanna Fold frames a new-year check-in with legal analyst Benyamin Moalem around five predictions on Israel, Iran, and the region's political fault lines.

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Want a fast 2026 map of Israel's biggest risks?

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