China Expert Dennis Wilder on U.S. Policy Towards Beijing

February 1, 2023·44 min·2 clips

Dennis Wilder, a former CIA China division chief, says Xi Jinping is 'retrograde,' has moved 'too far too fast,' and will be remembered as presiding over a period of Chinese setbacks—ending up like his friend Vladimir Putin.

Dennis Wilder starts from government experience. He is introduced as a Georgetown fellow, former National Security Council staffer, and career CIA officer focused on China and East Asia. Michael Morrell frames him as a former colleague, then steers the conversation into China policy history and the harder problem China presents now. The tone stays collegial, but Wilder does not soften his verdict on Xi Jinping. He calls Xi retrograde, says his worldview does not make sense, and argues that he moved too far too fast. The main fight is over engagement. Wilder pushes back on the claim that U.S. policy was built on the belief that China would simply become a liberal democracy. That was not the operating theory, he says. The White House approach was a hedge, hopeful in one direction and prepared in the other. Washington wanted China to accept international norms and, over time, embrace the liberal world order that had worked since World War Two. But officials also understood that China might reject that path and try to reshape the world order around itself. That risk is why, in Wilder's account, engagement sat beside American power rather than replacing it. He points to strong defenses, allied posture, and forward deployment in the Pacific as part of the same policy. Taiwan is his clearest answer to the critics. He argues that the period kept peace in the Taiwan Strait, maintained strong ties with Taiwan, and improved the regional defense position. North Korea gives the argument a practical test. Wilder cites the six party talks as a case where the United States and China worked well together. The Yongbyon cooling towers mattered in that story. He says the talks were working during that period and fell apart only after the North Korean leader was incapacitated. So when critics say engagement failed, Wilder wants the terms defined. To him, the policy mixed cooperation, deterrence, and preparation for a tougher China.

As heard by us

A grounded inside view of how U.S. officials tried to hedge China without wishful thinking.

Dennis Wilder draws on long experience in China policy, intelligence, and the NSC, and the episode works best when it shows how the Bush team tried to hedge China instead of simply trusting it.

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Why you'd press play

You want an inside account of how Washington tried to hedge China.

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