Inside Wirtschaft - Der Podcast mit Manuel Koch | Börse und Wirtschaft im Blick · Manuel Koch

#1503 Inside Wirtschaft - Nicolas Saurenz (Feingold Research): „Die Disruption wird aber erhalten bleiben"

April 10, 2026·11 min·1 clip

The DAX jumped over 1,000 points after an Iran war ceasefire, but host Manuel Koch asks if this market euphoria can last.

The episode begins with host Manuel Koch noting the DAX's 1,000-point jump following a ceasefire in the Iran conflict, though markets remain volatile. Guest Nicolas Saurenz from Feingold Research joins to analyze the situation. Saurenz states the market's positive reaction was expected in magnitude but not in timing, due to unpredictable deadline extensions by Donald Trump. He explains that unlike past conflicts with China or Venezuela, Trump did not control the 'on and off switch' in the Hormuz Strait, making the situation uniquely difficult for markets. The discussion shifts to oil, where Saurenz details how future prices differ from spot prices, with dated delivery reaching record highs of $150-200 per barrel, explaining high fuel costs. He expects oil to fall below $100 but warns disruptions will persist. On gold, Saurenz notes it lost its crisis-currency role, falling during the war due to correlation with stocks and US dollar dynamics. He links the crash to emerging market central banks, like Turkey's, selling gold to buy dollars and support their currencies. For investors, Saurenz cautions against news-driven bets on oil stocks, instead highlighting tech stocks as interesting after interest rate pressure made them relatively cheap, citing the Magnificent Seven like Alphabet and Meta. He advises ETF savers to stay course but active investors to take profits during recoveries and adopt a defensive stance. The episode concludes with expectations of continued volatility through 2026, driven by political events like US midterms.

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