Human Centered · Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences

Interdependence & Climate Change - Robert Keohane

·1 hr 8 min·5 clips

Why the U.S. is vulnerable, not just sensitive, to climate change with no magic bullets to adapt.

This episode features a conversation with Robert Keohane, a preeminent international relations scholar, hosted by CASBS fellows Henry Farrell and Rebecca Slayton. Keohane explains his foundational distinction between sensitivity interdependence, which requires a reaction to external changes, and vulnerability interdependence, which implies an inability to easily adapt to those changes. He applies this framework to climate change, arguing nations are vulnerable because no simple adaptation "magic bullets" exist, unlike the 1970s oil crisis where the U.S. could restructure its response. Keohane recounts how economist Fred Bergsten prompted him to distinguish cooperation, which arises from discord over issues like paying for public goods, from harmony, like standardized traffic rules. He describes developing his theory of international institutions by inverting economist Ronald Coase's theorem, arguing institutions provide essential information and reduce transaction costs in an anarchic world, akin to how a used car dealer mitigates the "market for lemons" problem. Keohane reflects that his early theories deliberately omitted domestic politics, a gap that later helped explain populist backlash to globalization, particularly after China's WTO entry hollowed out U.S. manufacturing. A surprising insight is Keohane's tempered optimism about climate change, citing unexpectedly rapid technological advances in batteries and electric vehicles. He notes the time compression of both climate damage and technological solutions, increasing societal vulnerability. Keohane argues the political science response of infrastructure investment and subsidies, as seen in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, is more viable than an economist's ideal carbon price because "green pork barrel" spending creates jobs and locks in political support. He emphasizes the critical question for climate policy is whether initiatives become embedded in the political economy like healthcare, making reversal unattractive even to opponents. Discussing long-term governance, Keohane suggests creating institutionalized trust funds, like the Alaska Oil Revenue Fund, to finance climate action beyond immediate crises. For global coordination, he sees carbon border adjustment taxes as a necessary but coercive tool requiring agreement among major powers like the U.S., China, and the EU. Keohane finds unilateral geoengineering, as depicted in Kim Stanley Robinson's novel, less plausible than the threat of it, as the acting state would become a global target. He is optimistic that climate action aligns with the next industrial revolution, offering development opportunities for tropical nations through solar energy and allowing countries to "leapfrog" outdated technologies like the internal combustion engine. The conversation is analytical and educational, grounded in decades of scholarly work yet engaged with current policy dilemmas. Listeners interested in the intersection of political theory, institutional design, and climate policy will find this episode deeply stimulating. Those seeking a purely scientific or activist perspective on climate change might find the focus on political frameworks and historical analogies less directly engaging.

As heard by us

Climate policy is treated here as an institutional design problem, not a slogan.

Robert Cohan treats climate change less like a slogan and more like a problem of institutions. His focus is on climate policy, interdependence, and the awkward question of how commitments stay in place when priorities shift across states, nations, and generations.

Read the full review in PlayNext →

Why you'd press play

If you want climate policy framed as a problem of lock-in, not headlines.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Human Centered