Hora 25 de los negocios | La factura de la guerra

·24 min·1 clip

The US military invoice for the Iran war reached 22,800 million dollars — enough to have given Medicaid health coverage to 6 million American children.

1. Hora 25 de los Negocios hosts Aymar Bretos and Javier Ruiz present a structured economic accounting of the US-Iran war framed as three temporal invoices: past, present, and future. 2. The episode draws on the Pentagon's own published figures, European Commission statements, expert interviews, and live market data recorded on the day of the ceasefire announcement. 3. The core thesis is that even if the war ends today, the economic bill has not ended and has 'not done more than start.' 4. The past US military invoice totaled 22,800 million dollars, based on the Pentagon's own revised estimate of approximately 1 billion dollars per day, with the US government still requesting additional Congressional funding. 5. Ruiz translates this figure into social equivalents: the same sum could have funded Medicaid coverage for 6 million American children, 26 million public housing units, 240,000 teachers, or canceled 20,000 euros of student debt for 1 million students. 6. The EU's past invoice adds approximately 14 billion euros in oil price overcosts over 30 days of conflict, per European Commissioner Jorgensen, bringing the combined past bill to roughly 36-37 billion dollars. 7. The present bill has two components: blocked maritime trade and damaged extraction infrastructure. 8. Despite the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz passage dropped from 105 ships per day pre-war (135 at peak) to 7 ships on the recording day, with 800 tankers stopped including 426 oil carriers, 208 biofuel ships, 34 refined fuel tankers, and 19 liquefied natural gas tankers. 9. Insurers and governments are deliberately slowing the reopening, assessing liability and inflation risk before authorizing vessels to transit. 10. Energy journalist Edu Hernández reports that on the ceasefire day, Brent fell to 91 dollars (the largest fall in six years), West Texas to 92 dollars, and European gas to 45 euros per megawatt hour — but all three remain approximately 30 percent above their pre-conflict levels of 72, 66, and 31 euros respectively. 11. A critical oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia connecting the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea was bombed on the ceasefire day itself, compounding the damage to transport infrastructure. 12. The future bill targets refineries: the Ras Laffan complex (world's largest refinery) and Southpars (world's largest natural gas depot) were both struck, and the Oxford Institute for Energy calculates that in the best scenario Ras Laffan cannot return to maximum capacity before 2031. 13. The IMF published a report on the same day stating that war economic damage outlasts both financial crisis effects and major natural disasters. 14. Reconstruction of damaged infrastructure is estimated to cost over 25,000 million euros, with a global shortage of specialized components needed for repairs. 15. Aircraft fuel doubled in price during the conflict, and airlines are passing costs directly to passengers: Delta expects to absorb 2 billion dollars in additional fuel costs. 16. Volotea has announced a 1 percent flight cancellation, Ryanair is studying similar cuts, and United Airlines has already canceled 5 percent of flights; IATA director Willy Walsh warns that capacity reductions may spread. 17. Geopolitical researcher Miguel Otero of the Real Instituto Elcano notes that Iran has demonstrated it can use the Hormuz Strait as a toll point and will likely extract a price from future shipping, potentially differentiating fees by country. 18. The program closes with financial analyst Joaquín Robles of VIG Global Investment Bank noting that the ceasefire produced a 2.5-3 percent S&P rally, Bitcoin surpassed 70,000 dollars, and bond market inflows hit a 30-year high on the day. 19. The tone is methodical and data-driven, structured as a journalistic accountability exercise with named sources, specific figures, and a clear temporal framework. 20. Listeners who want context-free financial tips or optimistic market commentary will find this episode's tone deliberately sobering and forward-looking about costs that have not yet fully materialized.

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