Handelsblatt Today – Der Finanzpodcast mit News zu Börse, Aktien und Geldanlage · Solveig Gode, Nicole Bastian, Sandra Groeneveld, Nele Dohmen, Anis Mičijević, Ben Mendelson

Öl und Gas: Kommt die wahre Krise erst noch? / „Zu gefährlich“ – Warum Anthropic sein neues KI-Modell zurückhält

·28 min·2 clips

Why a fragile Middle East truce and a withheld AI model that finds 27-year-old security flaws could trigger dual crises.

1. Handelsblatt Today, a German financial news podcast, covers two interconnected stories on April 9: Anthropic's AI security model Mythos and an escalating oil and gas supply crisis tied to the Middle East conflict. 2. Host Tami Holderried presents the episode; commodities reporter Judith Henke and tech editor Christoph Kerkmann appear as expert commentators from Frankfurt. 3. The episode's core thesis is that two simultaneous shocks — an AI model that can autonomously find cyber vulnerabilities, and a near-total blockage of Middle East oil flows — represent an escalation in risk that markets are not yet fully pricing in. 4. Asian markets fell on April 9, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.5% and the Topix losing 0.7%, as investors remained nervous about trade route security despite a ceasefire announcement. 5. The DAX fell roughly 1% on April 9, reversing much of the previous day's 5% jump triggered by the ceasefire announcement, as Israeli strikes in Lebanon raised doubts about the ceasefire's durability. 6. Anthropic's Claude Mythos Preview model was described as capable of autonomously reading code, forming hypotheses about vulnerabilities, and testing them simultaneously, discovering thousands of security flaws across every major operating system and browser. 7. A specific example given is OpenBSD, a security-hardened operating system used in firewalls, where Mythos found a 27-year-old vulnerability that generations of developers had missed. 8. Kerkmann warns that zero-day exploits — previously the domain of state-sponsored actors — could become accessible to a much wider range of criminal and non-state actors as these AI capabilities proliferate. 9. Anthropic's 'Project Glasswing' alliance includes Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft, positioning the model as a defensive tool to help companies identify and close vulnerabilities before attackers find them. 10. Kerkmann notes a pattern: capabilities available in a frontier AI model typically appear in other models within six to seven months, meaning the technology's spread is likely regardless of current restrictions. 11. On energy: approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day normally flow through the Strait of Hormuz, about one-fifth of global supply, but flows have collapsed by 95%, with only Iranian vessels passing through. 12. Near-term 'dated Brent' oil — oil for delivery in the next 10 to 30 days — briefly reached $145 per barrel, signaling an acute physical shortage rather than speculative pricing. 13. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline at 7 million barrels per day capacity and the UAE pipeline at 1.5 million barrels per day are both running at full capacity, but neither covers the shortfall from Hormuz. 14. Iraq, the Gulf's second-largest producer, has almost no bypass options; its oil exports fell by 97% in March and it has shut down roughly 80% of production because storage tanks are full. 15. Judith Henke cites Qatar's large LNG facility as potentially damaged, with full restoration estimated to take several years. 16. Real-world rationing is already visible: fuel caps in several Asian countries, South Korea requesting citizens to keep cars parked one day per week, school weeks shortened in Laos and Bangladesh to conserve energy. 17. The episode uses a conversational interview format with two expert reporters; the tone is measured but increasingly alarmed, particularly in Henke's energy segments. 18. Holderried asks pointed clarifying questions, and both Kerkmann and Henke provide structured, data-driven answers, keeping the discussion accessible to a financially literate but non-specialist audience. 19. Best for investors, energy market watchers, and readers interested in cybersecurity and AI policy. 20. Listeners wanting entertainment or broad economics without deep Middle East geopolitics may find the focus too narrow.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Handelsblatt Today – Der Finanzpodcast mit News zu Börse, Aktien und Geldanlage