Handelsblatt Today – Der Finanzpodcast mit News zu Börse, Aktien und Geldanlage · Solveig Gode, Nicole Bastian, Sandra Groeneveld, Nele Dohmen, Anis Mičijević, Ben Mendelson

Glück oder Insiderhandel? Verdächtige Kriegswetten auf Polymarket und Co. / Aleph Alpha und Cohere sprechen über Fusion

·29 min·2 clips

Prediction markets like Polymarket are seeing suspiciously timed bets on Iran peace talks, raising insider trading concerns.

1. Handelsblatt Today's April 10 episode covers US inflation data, the Aleph Alpha-Cohere AI merger, and insider trading suspicions on prediction markets like Polymarket. 2. Host Arnes Micihiewicz leads the episode with market correspondent Martin Müller and reporters Josefine Fokul, Antonia Mannweiler, and new team member Aileen Bunte. 3. The episode's central thesis is that US geopolitical instability is accelerating both European AI sovereignty efforts and unregulated financial speculation. 4. US inflation rose to 3.3% year-on-year in March — the highest in nearly two years — primarily driven by energy prices rising 12.5% due to the Iran war. 5. Gasoline prices alone accounted for three-quarters of total March inflation, while core inflation (excluding energy and food) rose only 2.6%, suggesting the war's effects haven't yet spread to other sectors. 6. The DAX recovered to just above 24,000 points on the day, while Rheinmetall fell over 5% on hopes of a lasting ceasefire, making it the worst-performing DAX stock. 7. Oil prices stabilized below $100 per barrel — Brent at $96, WTI at $98 — down from over $110 the prior week but still elevated pre-war levels. 8. According to Handelsblatt reporting, Aleph Alpha (Heidelberg) and Cohere (Canada) are in final-stage merger negotiations, internally calling the combined entity 'NewCo' with planned headquarters in both Germany and France. 9. Germany's Digital Minister Carsten Wildberger has positioned himself as a deal facilitator and is prepared to make the German government an anchor client, including for the Deutschland-App developed by SAP and Deutsche Telekom. 10. Cohere's most recent funding round valued it at $6.8 billion; Aleph Alpha's last round, over two years ago, valued it at roughly €446 million — a fraction of Cohere's valuation. 11. Aleph Alpha's co-founder and former CEO Jonas Andrulis departed in January, and the company conducted layoffs around the same time, suggesting it needs the deal more than Cohere does. 12. For Cohere, the German deal represents a first step into the European market at a time when Canada and Germany share concerns about US digital policy alignment. 13. Reporter Josefine Fokul notes Germany's ministry is also in close talks with French AI firm Mistral and Black Forest Labs as part of broader diversification of AI dependencies. 14. On prediction markets, a Columbia Law School and Haifa University study examined over 200,000 wallets with a 70% win rate — well above chance — earning collectively over $140 million. 15. Examples include an account winning over $500,000 betting on the fall of Iran's Ali Khamenei, with the bet placed one hour before Khamenei's death was publicly known. 16. Over 150 Polymarket accounts bet on the exact timing of the US attack on Iran on the Friday before the attack, raising suspicions of government-level information leaks. 17. The CFTC, the designated regulator for prediction markets, currently has only one commissioner — Mike Selig — after all five resigned in the past year, while its Chicago enforcement office has lost all 20 of its lawyers. 18. Former CFTC chair Timothy Massett told reporters the agency was never equipped to monitor every type of event contract given the explosion of new markets on these platforms. 19. Investors interested in European AI policy, geopolitical market movements, and financial regulation will find the most detail here. 20. Casual investors or listeners seeking stock tips rather than policy and structural analysis are unlikely to find actionable guidance in this episode.

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