E32 vs. E10: Why Brazil is Lapping the US on Ethanol

·23 min·2 clips

A city boy and a Nebraska rancher reveal why Brazil's 32% ethanol mandate is lapping the U.S. while American farmers are left holding the bag.

The episode begins with host introductions, revealing Joe Vaclavik as a city boy turned ag professional, Mackenzie Johnston as a Nebraska rancher and content creator, and Matt Bennett as an Illinois grain farmer. They open with a story on Brazil considering boosting its ethanol blend from 30% to 32% to lower fuel costs amid global oil price surges. Joe details Brazil's ethanol program, started in the 1970s, which uses mostly sugarcane and has flex-fuel vehicles comprising 94% of new sales as of 2013. The hosts contrast this with U.S. ethanol policy, where oil lobbies resist higher blends, even opposing optional year-round E15 sales. Matt Bennett criticizes U.S. lawmakers for accepting money from energy lobbies, arguing Brazil supports its growers better and produces greener fuel. The discussion then shifts to USDA reports, with U.S. corn ending stocks pegged at 2.13 billion bushels, unchanged from March, and soybean stocks at 350 million bushels. Matt analyzes corn market pricing, noting it's fairly priced in bear territory but could tighten with weather issues or reduced planting. World corn stocks are highlighted as the tightest in over 10 years, though the market reflects U.S. fundamentals. Wheat futures tumbled after USDA increased U.S. ending stocks estimates to 938 million bushels, with drought affecting 68% of winter wheat areas. The hosts examine weather forecasts and price charts, noting wheat market weakness but potential support from global dryness. Soybeans show resilience despite bearish factors like Brazil's large crop. The episode covers drought monitor data, showing improvements in Corn Belt drought but ongoing concerns for cattle areas at 63% drought. Planting disruptions due to rain are discussed, with Matt advising it's too early for market impact. Export sales data shows corn sales up, soybean sales down, with China likely done buying old crop beans. Cattle markets are higher, correlating with lower corn prices, and Mackenzie notes drought and wildfires displacing cattle in Nebraska. The episode concludes with a weekend sign-off.

As heard by us

Brazilian ethanol policy, wheat stocks, and weather risk converge in a brisk market briefing for producers watching futures action.

Brazil's possible move toward a higher ethanol blend gives this market briefing a clear center of gravity, linking overseas policy to U.S. corn, weather, and futures.

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Want a brisk grain-market morning with Brazil ethanol policy, wheat stocks, weather, and cattle drought risk in the same pass?

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