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LE PLUS BEL OPTIMISME DU MONDE... ET LES PIRES DONNÉES ÉCONOMIQUES DE L'ANNÉE | Morningbull

·11 min·1 clip

Thomas Veillet reveals the total disconnection between grim economic reality and soaring financial markets on April 10, 2026.

The episode, presented by Swissquote, opens with host Thomas Veillet introducing the central theme: a total disconnection between financial market optimism and grim economic reality. He notes the S&P 500 closed at 6,824, similar to levels in early 2026, despite oil prices surging from around $60 to $98 per barrel. Veillet observes that Wall Street is acting as if recent geopolitical conflicts, like war, have already been archived and forgotten. He reports Wall Street's seventh consecutive gaining session, driven by hope for peace talks, despite economic indicators showing decline. Specific data points include US GDP growth for Q4 2025 revised down to 0.5% from earlier estimates near 4%, sustained inflation figures that don't yet reflect recent oil price spikes, and falling employment. Veillet highlights the Strait of Hormuz, where ship crossings dropped from 135 per day pre-war to just 8, with millions of barrels unexported, yet markets focus on the glass being half full. A key moment discusses how markets bounced after the Netanyahu government announced peace talks with Lebanon, hours after Israeli strikes killed over 250 people in Beirut, illustrating remarkable market complacency. The host sarcastically reviews a TV analyst's claim that after seven up sessions, the probability of an eighth is 50%, and that markets typically rise 1% a month thereafter, critiquing superficial analysis. Asian markets are rising on hopes for Iran-US negotiations, even without confirmed Iranian participation, likened to showing up for a date hoping the other person knows. The Kospi rose 1.9%, partly due to panic selling and euphoric buying back, showing mood over substance. Veillet questions panic levels for Japanese 10-year yields at 2.42%. He previews Islamabad negotiations with deeply divergent agendas between the US and Iran, noting if talks fail, oil could hit $120. The episode touches on political narratives, with Donald Trump's victory story on Fox News contrasting with voters facing high gas prices at $4.50 per gallon. It critiques Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's potential rate cuts amid inflation and slowing growth as monetary prestidigitation. The upcoming US CPI release may show oil impact, but optimism will label it transitory. The host warns of Trump's social media anger over Hormuz taxation and prepares listeners for a volatile Monday opening. The episode ends with reminders to subscribe and a promo for SwissBliss, emphasizing the informative, non-advice nature of the content.

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