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·34 min·3 clips

Thomas Beyer describes a week where oil prices act like a bomb countdown and Donald Trump holds the world's fate in his hands.

The episode opens with a Hollywood disaster film analogy for the week's events, centered on oil prices and Donald Trump's role. Monday saw oil at $115 amid Trump's ultimatum to Iran, with markets in a tense adjustment phase. The dollar behaved illogically by falling during the crisis. Tuesday night brought Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire and Iran's promise to reopen the Hormuz Strait, triggering explosive market gains: Paris up 4.49%, Frankfurt 5.06%, and oil plunging 15%. The host notes this rebound was premature, as hundreds of ships remain blocked and reopening is complex. Oil then rebounded above $100 by Thursday. The episode shifts to the Islamabad negotiations, where G. Devens represents Trump against Iranian officials, with Iran demanding control of the strait and hidden mines complicating logistics. American inflation for March came in at 3.3%, driven by energy, but core inflation fell to 2.6%. Jamie Dimon's shareholder letter warns of unseen inflation from high oil prices. A major hidden risk is highlighted: Japanese 10-year yields rising to 2.44% could trigger capital repatriation, potentially causing market turmoil as seen in August 2024. SpaceX's confidential IPO filing targets a $1.75 trillion valuation in June 2026, with 30% shares reserved for retail investors, contrasted with historical Roman 'bread and games' parallels. Weekly performances show semiconductor indices up 13.49%, Bitcoin up 8.25%, and crude oil down 13.40%. The S&P 500 erased recent losses, nearing records, but volatility remains high pending the ceasefire outcome. The episode concludes with corporate news like Moody's upgrading VAT Group and Roche's cancer research deal with C4 Therapeutics, before summarizing the week's surreal events and previewing next week's bank earnings.

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