Could the Iran war lead to WWIII?

March 17, 2026·45 min·4 clips

A 14th-century historian predicted that empires fall in three generations: builders, consolidators, and princelings. Iran's Islamic Republic has just entered its third generation with Mojtaba.

In this Fresh Air interview, Terry Gross speaks with Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about the ongoing war with Iran. Sadjadpour describes how Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the killed Ayatollah, inherited power while injured, grieving, and hunted by Israeli assassins. He operates as a figurehead while Revolutionary Guard commanders run the country through 31 decentralized military units. Sadjadpour explains the generational theory of empires, placing Iran in its weakest third generation of princeling leaders. The discussion covers Iran's asymmetric strategy of using cheap drones to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and harass shipping worth billions, a tactic that has frustrated American ambitions despite costing a fraction of what defense requires. Sadjadpour assesses the World War III risk as low because Iran is strategically isolated, with even China and Russia maintaining closer relationships with Iran's Gulf neighbors than with Iran itself. The interview examines why the regime persists despite perhaps only fifteen to twenty percent popular support, explaining that its loyalists believe losing power means death. Sadjadpour contrasts Iran's backward-looking 1979 ideology with the forward-looking modernization visions of Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. He notes that what began as a war of choice has become a war of necessity, with no easy off-ramp. The conversation closes with Sadjadpour reflecting on Iran's tragedy as a civilization whose GDP once matched South Korea's.

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