#9/4 - Petróleo avança com tensão em Ormuz e bolsas recuam
·7 min
Felipe Villegas, an equity strategist at Genial Investimentos, hosts the Morning Call on Thursday, April 9th. He opens by explaining that yesterday's market relief rally, driven by optimism about a US-Iran ceasefire, is losing momentum as doubts emerge about its effective implementation. Disruptions persist in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides accusing each other of violating the truce, and disagreements extending to Lebanon. The Iranian semi-official agency Fard reported passage interruptions after Israeli attacks on Lebanon, while Tehran warned of possible mines in the Strait. Former US President Trump pledged to keep American troops in the Persian Gulf, and indirect talks between Washington and Tehran are scheduled for Saturday. The US has asked European allies for quick plans to protect the Strait, and two Chinese tankers are preparing to cross it as a test of the ceasefire. The US economic agenda includes the release of February PCE inflation data, preferred by the Fed, with monthly estimates of 0.4% increase but annual rate possibly slowing to 30%. Consumer spending likely rose with auto sales recovery, and data on personal income, personal spending, and initial jobless claims are also due. However, most of this data is from February, pre-dating the conflict, so the market must contextualize it considering March's significant changes. Oil markets show a resumption of positive movement, with Brent up 3.7% to $98 per barrel and WTI up 5% to $99. Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report that Brent could average over $100 per barrel through 2026 if the Strait remains closed for another month. Iron ore futures in Singapore retreated 2.7%, and Bitcoin is stable around $71,400. In Brazil, the session reflects a partial recovery in external rallies and oil price resumptions. The macroeconomic agenda includes Treasury loans and Central Bank swap offers. A major fiscal defeat occurred for the government as the Federal Justice of Rio de Janeiro suspended the charging of a 12% tax on oil exports for some companies, which the government wanted to use to compensate for fuel subsidy spending. Minister Alexandre de Silveira commented on Brazil's problematic position. Politically, the PL is evaluating Clarice Tércio, a federal deputy from Pernambuco, for a role to boost votes in the Northeast, and Lula is reportedly moving away from the STF after a scandal. Corporate news includes BTG Pactual signing an agreement to acquire Digimais bank with credit guarantee fund support, Banco do Brasil proposing a capital increase to 150 billion reais, and BRB seeking to publish late balances. BTG was restarted as a buy recommendation, Petrobras negotiates buying a refinery in Bahia, and production updates are given for oil companies. The summary reiterates that the global rally from the ceasefire faces resistance due to implementation doubts, pushing oil prices up again, though below $100. The US agenda's February data hinders analysis, and in Brazil, the government's tax suspension defeat and opposition strategic organizing are key points.
