EUA vão invadir o Irã; Lula não vai disputar eleição?; Inflação global chegando

·41 min·4 clips

Fernando Ulrich explains why an oil shock won't lower interest rates, but could trigger a global recession.

Fernando Ulrich hosts a Q&A episode responding to listener submissions from April 2nd. He begins by addressing whether oil supply shocks could lower interest rates, arguing the opposite occurs due to inflationary pressure. Ulrich discusses the global oil shock's impact, noting central banks may raise rates, and Brazil might postpone cuts. He analyzes Brazil's economic position, highlighting its currency and stock market outperformance during the war, calling it 'the least dirty shirt' among emerging economies. The episode covers investment questions, including a detailed explanation of Michael Saylor's four preferential share types like Stretch and Strife. Ulrich shifts to geopolitics, assessing the Iran-US conflict, predicting a potential disastrous US land invasion and criticizing Trump's credibility. He examines war beneficiaries, naming Russia as the primary short-term winner. The conversation touches on inflation examples, using Easter eggs to illustrate shrinkflation and ingredient substitution. Ulrich answers questions on Lula's re-election prospects, Brazilian fiscal policies, and fuel subsidies. He recommends books by Daniel Yergin and Marcelo Lopes' Substack for geopolitics and investments. The episode concludes with course promotions for his followers, including Market Cycle and Bitcoin Future courses, and a birthday greeting to a listener.

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