Expected by Whom? - An Analytics & Eye Test Hockey Podcast · Winged Wheel Podcast Network

The Return of EBW ft. John Matisz - Ep. 20

·1 hr 21 min·5 clips

Travis Konecny rewired his game after analytics showed he was shooting from the outside too often.

This episode of "Expected by Whom?" marks the podcast's return after a hiatus, hosted by Prashanth Iyer and Sean Shapiro. They are joined by guest John Matisz, a senior NHL writer for The Score, to discuss hockey analytics and recent NHL developments. The hosts first delve into a proposed NHL rule change allowing coaches to challenge puck-over-glass and friendly-fire high-sticking penalties, with a failed challenge resulting in a 5-on-3 penalty. Sean Shapiro shares a reaction from former Dallas Stars video coach Kelly Forbes, who predicted many video coaches would dislike the increased scrutiny. Shapiro also recounts Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy's strategy of using goalie interference challenges when trailing badly, treating it as a low-risk tool. Several unnamed coaches told Shapiro they support keeping the puck-over-glass penalty to prevent players from deliberately flipping the puck out to stop play. Prashanth Iyer references a 2008 analysis by Gabe Desjardins showing a 50% scoring probability on an 80-second 5-on-3, arguing the penalty is a sufficient deterrent against frivolous challenges. Both hosts express concern that this change could open a "Pandora's box" leading to reviews for penalties like slashing or tripping in the future. Iyer suggests an analysis similar to Matt Cane's 2017 work on offside challenges could determine the required confidence level for these new challenges. The conversation shifts to other desired rule changes, with Iyer advocating for eliminating the trapezoid to allow goalies to handle the puck more freely and create "goalie adventures." Shapiro proposes testing a rule, already used in USA Hockey, that prevents teams from icing the puck while on a penalty kill, to see if it increases offense at the professional level. The interview with John Matisz focuses on his lengthy article reflecting on the "summer of analytics" from 2012 and its evolution over a decade. Matisz used Carolina Hurricanes executive Eric Tulsky as a central figure to trace how analytics have been integrated into NHL teams. He notes the number of people in NHL data roles has grown from roughly 15 to about 150 over ten years, with 22 of 32 teams now employing two to five analytics staffers. Matisz explains that early "data people" and traditional "hockey people" have largely met in the middle, with analytics staff now often part of key decision-making circles, as with Matt Sells in Minnesota. He observes that coaches now commonly use data for pre-scouting opponents but distill it into one or two simple points for players to avoid overload. The tone is conversational and analytical, blending a casual discussion between hosts with an in-depth journalistic interview. Listeners interested in the nuances of NHL rule changes, hockey analytics, and the business of the sport would enjoy this episode. Those seeking only game recaps or pure entertainment might find the detailed procedural discussions less engaging.

As heard by us

A returning hockey show that leans into analytics, common ground, and a Detroit doubleheader.

EBW comes back with a loose, conversational hockey catch-up that moves from the NHL general managers meeting to a chat with John Matisse of The Score about where analytics sit in the NHL, then down to a Detroit doubleheader with the Wings and the PWHL.

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Why you'd press play

A return episode that checks in on NHL analytics, a GM meeting, and a Detroit doubleheader.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

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