Even Money: NFL Betting Podcast · Betting, Sports Betting, Gambling, NFL Betting

2025 NFL Season Win Total Recap

·30 min·2 clips

Pythagorean record says ignore win-loss and use scoring differential, because close NFL results are 'more plinko random stuff.'

1. Even Money, presented by DraftKings, reviews every 2025 NFL season win-total bet, with Ross Tucker and Steve Bezik reporting a combined 2-9 record on their forced leans. 2. Ross Tucker, host of the Ross Tucker Football Podcast, and betting partner Steve Bezik go team by team through the league, and Steve says he is considering scaling back NFL win totals after this result. 3. Their thesis is that 2025 was a very unusual year, with the Patriots, Bears and Seahawks defying preseason lines, and that no strategy, including selling a game off the number, worked. 4. The Packers over 9.5 was a bet both liked, and it missed at 9 wins, which Ross blames partly on an early tie with Dallas that counted as zero wins. 5. Both hosts leaned under on the Seahawks and Patriots at 8.5, and each team won 14 games, with Seattle also winning the Super Bowl; Steve credits a coaching upgrade and Sam Darnold's improvement over Geno Smith. 6. Steve explains the Pythagorean win total using the Panthers, who were outscored by 69 points yet won 8 games against a 6.5 line, and he says close scores are 'more plinko random stuff.' 7. The Chiefs went 6-11 against an 11.5 total despite outscoring opponents by 34 points, and the Jets finished 3-14-equivalent at 3 wins against a 6.5 line, which both hosts say should have been a bet. 8. Steve names Daniel Jones with the Colts and the Jaguars' 13 wins on a 7.5 line as examples of veteran quarterbacks and offenses outperforming expectations, and notes the Texans reached 12 wins after an 0-3 start. 9. Steve argues that coaches in their 70s warrant caution after Bill Belichick at North Carolina and Pete Carroll with the Raiders, who won 3 games against a 6.5 total, and says Hall of Fame coaches average about .500 after age 60 once Belichick is removed. 10. Bettors who track NFL win totals and want a candid review of misses will get the most from it.

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