Equity Mates Investing Podcast · Equity Mates Media

We're panic buying & the most bullish Mr Beat Up yet

·30 min·2 clips

Duolingo has fallen from $544 to $98 while investors worry about AI and slower growth.

1. Equity Mates Investing Podcast centers on a panic-buying week and a Duolingo valuation debate with Simon "Mr Beat Up." 2. Bryce and Ren host the show, and Simon appears as the guest stock-picker who tests Duolingo against his four-step checklist. 3. The episode asks whether the week's sell-off and Duolingo's 80% share-price drop are overreactions or signs that the story is broken. 4. Bryce and Ren open by pointing to the ASX falling about 3% on Monday after a weak US jobs report, Middle East war escalation, and a surging oil price. 5. They note Brent crude moving from around $70 a barrel before the conflict to nearly $120 on Monday, with headlines warning about $150 oil. 6. Ren argues that Tuesday's US market rebound showed how quickly panic can fade when investors have already priced in some bad news. 7. The hosts cite David Bassanese and say the S&P 500 has dropped 5% or more 66 times since 1954. 8. They add that two-thirds of those drawdowns never reached 10%, while a 10% fall happens about once every three years and a 20% fall about once every seven years. 9. The long-run numbers are the core lesson: $10,000 in the S&P 500 from 1954 would be worth $2.7 million, or more than $22 million with dividends reinvested. 10. They repeat the same pattern in Australia, where the All Ordinaries has seen 29 falls of 10% or more since 1980 and seven falls of 20% or more. 11. A $10,000 investment in the All Ordinaries in 1980 would be worth just over $1 million today with dividends reinvested. 12. Simon then shifts to Duolingo, saying the stock fell from $544 last May to $98 and dropped another 22% on February 26 after Q4 earnings. 13. He says the company remains the world's most popular language-learning app, with over 500 million Google Play Store downloads, 41 million reviews, and a 4.7 rating. 14. Duolingo also reported 15 million users with 365-day-plus streaks, 12.2 million paid subscribers, and 72% gross margin after app-store fees. 15. Simon explains that the company reduced revenue-growth guidance to 15% to 18% after years of 44%, 41%, and 39% growth. 16. He frames the moat as a mix of 85% daily-active-user share in language learning, a habit loop built around streaks, and data from billions of exercises. 17. The reinvestment discussion covers new math, music, and chess courses, high-single-digit returns on invested capital, and a $400 million buyback equal to about 9% of market cap. 18. The pace stays conversational and sceptical, with Bryce and Ren trading market banter while Simon runs the four-step checklist on Duolingo. 19. Investors who want drawdown history, valuation math, and AI risk in consumer software will get the most from this episode. 20. People who want a softer market chat without 3% sell-offs, 12x earnings, or revenue-guidance math can skip it.

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