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Gilles Moëc : "La France n'a pas de marge de sécurité pour la gestion des chocs"

·20 min·2 clips

Gilles Moëc reveals why oil tanker traffic hasn't resumed through the Strait of Hormuz despite a ceasefire.

The episode is an interview with Gilles Moëc, head economist of AXA Group, on the economic implications of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The host, David Jacquot, opens by asking about the reopening of the strait and oil traffic resumption. Moëc states that traffic has not normalized, with only a few tanker passes, and flows remain blocked. He discusses the Iranian toll demand of $2 million per boat, framing it as a regression from principles of free sea traffic. Moëc highlights that the crisis has demonstrated that 20% of global oil supply can be blocked, a risk previously unproven. He analyzes oil price movements, noting current levels around $97 are above central banks' pre-war assumptions of $65-$70. The conversation shifts to central bank reactions, with Moëc suggesting the ceasefire likely prevents an ECB rate hike in April but leaves June uncertain. He examines inflation transmission risks, noting France's lower sensitivity due to nuclear power, unlike Germany and Italy. Moëc comments on the Fed's reluctance to cut rates despite market expectations. He identifies bond markets as the most significant movers, with relief in sovereign rates like German 10-year yields retreating from 3%. Moëc warns that public deficits near 5% in France leave no fiscal margin to handle additional shocks. The interview concludes with the need for a lasting agreement beyond the ceasefire to sustain market rallies.

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