Ecorama · BOURSORAMA

Gilles Moëc : "La France n'a pas de marge de sécurité pour la gestion des chocs"

April 9, 2026·20 min·2 clips

Gilles Moëc reveals why oil tanker traffic hasn't resumed through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran's ceasefire announcement.

The episode features an interview with Gilles Moëc, head economist of AXA Group, conducted by host David Jacquot on Boursorama. It begins with immediate questions about whether oil tanker traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's ceasefire announcement. Moëc states traffic hasn't normalized, with only a few passes early that morning. He discusses Iran's proposed $2 million per boat toll, framing it as a regression from free navigation principles. Moëc argues the closure has created a permanent risk premium, suggesting oil may never return to $60-$70 levels. He analyzes slow Iran-U.S. negotiations and technical damage to production capacities. The conversation shifts to central bank responses, with Moëc predicting the ECB won't raise rates in April due to the ceasefire but may consider preventive hikes in June. He contrasts inflation risks in France, which benefits from nuclear power, with higher vulnerabilities in gas-dependent Italy and Germany. Moëc comments on Fed reluctance to cut rates despite market expectations. He highlights bond market reactions as most significant, with relief from rising sovereign yields. The interview concludes with Moëc warning that France's high public deficits leave no safety margin for managing additional economic shocks.

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