The episode opens with host David Jacquot noting a 4.5% rebound in the CAC 40 and a slight 0.8% correction, questioning its durability. Guest John Plassat, responsible for investment strategy at Cité Gestion, joins from Geneva. He attributes the initial rebound to relief over the reported ceasefire between the US and Iran, though hostilities are only paused. Plassat highlights the 15% drop in oil prices as a key factor, stressing that market durability depends on stability in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil transport. He explains that economic impacts from oil crises typically manifest after 8-12 weeks of elevated prices, and the current crisis is about a month and a half old. On inflation, Plassat notes it takes one to three months to affect production prices and three to six months for consumer prices, placing the current situation at a critical juncture. The discussion turns to historical market performance after 10% corrections, with Plassat citing averages of 15% gains after one year and over 40% after three years. He observes that negative sentiment often precedes strong rebounds, though timing lows is impossible. Plassat asserts oil has become the primary market driver, surpassing interest rates and growth, and links it to potential stagflation risks if prices remain high. He advises investors to maintain discipline and diversification, warning against market timing. A key statistic reveals that missing the 10 best market days over 30 years halves returns, underscoring the importance of staying invested. The episode ends with Plassat reinforcing the need for a balanced portfolio and avoiding panic.
