Deep Dish on Global Affairs · The Chicago Council on Global Affairs

From Oil to Food: How the Iran War Could Disrupt Global Stability

March 26, 2026·32 min·2 clips

The Iran war may soon hit grocery stores, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten fertilizer shortages and global food stability.

Iran's war is not staying local. The episode opens with the conflict's reach beyond the battlefield: gas prices, grocery costs, and the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer is the hinge. The worry is not just what happens at the pump, but whether shortages could squeeze farmers already dealing with tariffs, labor shortages, and rising costs. The human cost stays close to the surface. The episode connects the economic shock to civilians across the Middle East facing hunger, displacement, and instability. Catherine Bertini answers carefully. The conversation looks back at fertilizer disruption tied to Belarus, Russia, and lost shipping routes from Ukraine. That crisis partly eased. Replacement routes can appear, but timing matters, and relief may not last. The aid system is strained. Asked whether development and humanitarian networks have been radically diminished, Bertini says they are constrained rather than broken. The American reduction matters, though she notes that other traditional donor countries have cut support even more by percentage. Priorities have moved. Defense spending, trade pressure, ideological fights, and domestic politics are crowding out humanitarian work. Restrictions now decide what can move where. Food may be blocked from Afghanistan or Somalia while still allowed for Somali refugees in Kenya. OCHA rules add more friction. Bertini describes agencies constantly adjusting to new rules and searching for workable channels. The result is a clear picture of connected risks: fuel, fertilizer, donor choices, and civilian need all pushing on one another.

As heard by us

A war briefing that moves from the Strait of Hormuz to supermarket shelves.

The episode treats the war in Iran as a crisis whose effects are already spilling past the battlefield, from higher gas prices to the slower squeeze on groceries through fertilizer shortages and pressure on farmers.

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Why you'd press play

Why your grocery bill may be caught in this war's ripple effects.

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